LSU is a 14-point favorite over Florida in the latest point spread heading into the major SEC matchup. The Gators and Tigers point total is set at 56 points, per OddsShark.
Given the Gators are coming off a big win over Auburn, LSU being a two-touchdown favorite over Florida may seem a bit surprising. Yet, 53 percent of the money is coming in on LSU, per OddsShark.
LSU quarterback Joe Burrow has leaned on a bevy of talented wide receivers to give the Tigers the most explosive offense we have seen in Baton Rouge in the last decade. Burrow has no shortage of weapons led by Justin Jefferson, Terrace Marshall Jr. and Ja’Marr Chase.
LSU’s offense has been transformed by passing game coordinator Joe Brady who came to Baton Rouge after two seasons with the Saints. The Tigers are now running an offense similar to the Saints who consistently have one of the best units in the NFL. They say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, and LSU head coach Ed Orgeron admitted he wanted to implement their NFL neighbors’ offense.
“I always wanted the Saints passing game and running RPOs (run-pass option plays),” Orgeron noted to The Athletic prior to the season. “So it was a natural fit. … (Joe Brady) is a very talented coach. (He) has been a game-changer for our staff.”
Florida & LSU Are Both Top-20 Defenses
Florida’s main hope to stay with LSU is its defense which ranks 11th in the country allowing just over 276 yards per game. The Tigers are close behind at 17th allowing nearly 288 yards per game. The question is whether Florida’s offense will be able to keep pace with LSU, especially against a solid Tigers defense.
Kyle Trask has the Gators offense looking more consistent than the unit was with Feleipe Franks under center. That said, the Gators still do not want to get into a shootout with LSU. Florida defensive lineman Kyree Campbell noted that the Gators are embracing the underdog role.
“We’ll keep being the underdog, doesn’t faze us,” Campbell explained to The Washington Post. “We just going to come out and play. It’s great motivation, but at the end of the day … they want to label us underdogs, then we’re cool with that. We’ll play as underdogs.”
Florida vs. LSU Pick: Tigers Top Gators in Death Valley
With the way LSU’s offense is playing heading into this matchup, it is hard to imagine the Tigers losing this game at home. The bigger question is whether LSU will be able to cover the sizable spread against one of the top defenses in the country.
ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ projections give the Tigers a narrow 32-24 victory over Florida. OddsShark’s computer projections also paint the picture of a close game with LSU edging out Florida 38.1-37.4.
While I don’t think LSU is in danger of losing this game, the Tigers are going to find it challenging to cover the spread. This game could be close at halftime with LSU opening things up in the second half. Even if LSU builds a large lead, Florida can still get a few garbage-time touchdowns to put themselves in a backdoor cover situation. Look for LSU to get the win, while Florida covers the spread.
Heavy’s Prediction: LSU 31 Florida 20. Florida Covers the +14 Spread. Under on the Point Total.