Fresno State still has an outside shot at clinching a berth in the conference title, but a stiff test against San Diego State awaits on Friday night. The Bulldogs are coming off a heartbreaking 37-35 loss to Utah State that saw the Aggies kick the game-winning field goal as time expired. The Aztecs are also licking their wounds after a 17-13 setback to Nevada last Saturday that snapped a four-game winning streak.
We break down the game and offer our best bets and predictions for this Mountain West matchup.
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Fresno State at San Diego State Details
*All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
The line opened at San Diego State -3 and has been bet all the way down to a pickem at most books, according to VegasInsider.com. That type of a line move denotes sharp action on Fresno State as an underdog. The majority of the action has come in on the favorite in this one, with the Aztecs receiving 65% of the bets and 60% of the money, according to The Action Network.
The total has also seen a big move, opening at 44 and dropping all the way down to 42.5 at some books. This move is surprising considering that 62% of the bets on the total has been for the over. This denotes a sharp reverse line move towards the under.
- Fresno State is 3-5-1 ATS this season
- San Diego State is 5-4 ATS this season
- Over is 7-2 in Fresno State games this season
- Under is 8-1 in San Diego State games this season
- Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings
- Fresno State is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings
*All betting trends are courtesy of Covers
Prediction & Picks
The sharp money is very potent in this matchup. Not only have we seen a reverse-line move on the side, but the total as well. When Fresno has the ball, we will see the best two units on the field. The Bulldogs offense is ranked 22nd in FBS averaging an impressive 34.3 points per game. Meanwhile, the Aztecs defense is ranked 12th on the other side, allowing just 4.5 yards per play. Considering how evenly matched both sides are in this game, the smart play would be to take as many points as you can find. If you missed out on Fresno State as a three-point underdog, my best advice is to try to get a better in-game line or wait until halftime. I do think Fresno has a slight edge based on the sharp money we’ve seen come in on the Bulldogs.
PICK: Fresno State +1 (-110)
If Fresno’s offense controls the tempo of this game, then it should fly way over this low number. My chief concern is San Diego State’s offense scoring enough points to stay on pace. The Aztecs are almost dead last in the FBS averaging just 4.5 yards per play. I actually think Fresno could blow out SDSU and this game still stays under, and I can’t fade the sharp money and reverse line movement we’ve seen on the under here. This one stays below the total.
PICK: Under 42.5 (-110)
Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith