Getty Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills
The New England Patriots are 6.5-point favorites over the Buffalo Bills in Saturday’s crucial AFC East showdown at Gillette Stadium that could decide who wins the division title.
Buffalo (10-4) is returning to the postseason for the first time since 2017 when they lost 10-3 to the Jaguars in the AFC Wild Card game. The Bills defense ranks second behind the Patriots allowing 15.9 points and third overall with 291.9 yards allowed per game this season. Cornerback Tre’Davious White was named AFC Defensive Player of the Week for the second time after recording two interceptions, two passes defended and four tackles in the win over Pittsburgh.
New England (11-3) can clinch its 11th straight AFC East title with a victory as they gear up for another postseason run. The Patriots have relied heavily on their defense this season and lead the NFL in interceptions (25), points allowed (12.9) and yards allowed (268.4). Tom Brady is completing just 60.1% of his passes this season, over 5.7% fewer than 2018. The Patriots rushed for 175 yards last week in the 34-13 win over the Bengals but managed just 75 yards on the ground in the Week 4 victory over Buffalo.
ESPN’s FPI gives New England an 81.4% chance of winning this game. We offer our best prop bets and analysis for Saturday’s crucial AFC East matchup between the Bills and Patriots.
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Bills vs. Patriots Game Details
Date: Saturday, December 21
Time: 4:30 pm
Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxboro, Massachusetts)
TV: NFL
Spread: Patriots -6.5
Total: 37
*All lines, odds, and trends are courtesy of Covers & The Action Network
Analysis & Picks
Bills quarterback Josh Allen is averaging 38.4 rushing yards over his last five games. His rushing prop on Fan Duel is currently going off at 32.5 on FanDuel seems to be a fair price for a quarterback who has consistently relied on his legs this season. I expect New England to take away the Bills running game, but Allen will do just enough to get over this number.
PICK: Josh Allen over 32.5 rushing yards (-112)
Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman had an uncharacteristically quiet performance in the win over the Bengals last Sunday, mostly because New England was playing from ahead for most of the game. Prior to that, Edelman had games with 95, 113 and 93 yards receiving. His receiving yards prop is currently sitting at 61.5 on FanDuel, which is a very fair number for the most consistent weapon Tom Brady has in his arsenal.
PICK: Julian Edelman over 61.5 receiving yards (-108)
I’ve been backing third trend for the past couple of weeks and it has been profitable. First-half unders in divisional games. Even more so when the game is being played outside. The logic makes sense, it’s the second time around for most of these matchups, more is at stake, the weather is less than ideal, and teams are a bit banged up on both sides of the ball. Sloppy play leads to fewer points and even though this number is very low, I feel confident backing this trend.
PICK: Under 19.5 first half (-120)
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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith