Getty New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees.
It could be another record-setting night at the Superdome for Drew Brees as the New Orleans Saints host the Indianapolis Colts on Monday. Brees is two touchdowns away from tying Peyton Manning’s career touchdown record of 539. It’s ironic that Brees could set the record against the Colts, Manning’s long-time team. There’s also a lot more on the line than just records. The Saints need a win to keep pace for the top spot in the NFC.
Indianapolis has seen their playoff hopes dashed with three consecutive losses, two within the division. Marlon Mack is 100 yards away from his first career 1,000-yard season. Wide receiver T.Y. Hilton is a game-time decision with a calf injury. Hilton has been hamstrung by injuries all season and has only appeared in seven games. Zach Pascal has emerged as the leading receiver with 183 yards receiving over the last two games.
We break down the line and offer our analysis and prop bets for Monday night’s matchup between the Colts and Saints.
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Colts vs. Saints Game Details
Date: Monday, December 16
Time: 8:15 pm
Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans, Louisiana)
TV: ESPN
Spread: Saints -9
Total: 46.5
*All prop odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Analysis & Prop Bets
We’ve seen this story before from Brees. Last year on MNF, Brees torched the Redskins and broke Peyton Manning career passing yards record of 71,940 with a 62-yard touchdown pass to Tre’Quan Smith. Brees had one of his best games of the season in the Redskins rout, completing 23-of-26 passes for 363 yards and three touchdowns. With Brees two scores behind Manning, his over prop of 1.5 touchdown passes seems too good to be true. I’m willing to swallow the juice so I can pop bottles with Drew when he breezes past Peyton’s mark.
PICK: Drew Brees over 1.5 touchdown passes (-192)
Alvin Kamara has only scored one rushing touchdown all season. One. That’s almost unfathomable if you consider he scored 14 rushing touchdowns last season and added four more receiving scores. Kamara’s lack of scoring production has not gone unnoticed as head coach Sean Payton was asked about Kamara’s possible regression during his weekly press conference. Consider this a small hedge to Brees’ touchdown prop. You figure if Brees doesn’t score twice then Kamara will find the end zone, and who knows, maybe Brees throws one to Kamara and doubles up.
PICK: Alvin Kamara anytime touchdown (-150)
We will stick with the New Orleans theme here and back Michael Thomas against a leaky Colts secondary. Thomas is having an All-Pro season with 121 catches for 1,424 yards and still three games left to play. Thomas has eclipsed 100 receiving yards in six of his last seven games and is averaging 128.4 receiving yards per game at home. He will match up against a Colts secondary that will be without Kenny Moore II who will miss the game with an ankle injury. This total is high, but I’m willing to pay up for the best receiver in the NFL.
PICK: Michael Thomas over 103.5 receiving yards (-112)
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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith
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