NFL fans are entering the final 24 hours before the draft actually starts on Thursday evening. We are about to end the months long speculation and see what actually happens when the teams are on the clock.
One of the most interesting things about the draft is finding out which speculation was “correct” and which turns out to be just a smoke-screen or maybe just doesn’t come to fruition. Regardless of right, wrong, or indifferent, this may be the most heavily bet and most heavily scrutinized draft in history simply because there is little else available for sports gamblers to wager upon.
Thanks to the good folks at William Hill for releasing information on bets that they’ve taken. Below, we take a look at some of the biggest attention-grabbers.
Bets and Payoffs
Five biggest NFL draft prop bets at William Hill
$4,000 to net $5,000 on over 3 quarterbacks drafted in first round (-400)
$3,200 to net $5,200 on Jerry Jeudy under 12.5 (-160)
$2,900 to net $4,900 on Jerry Jeudy under 12.5 (-145)
$2,500 to net $5,250 on Cesar Ruiz will be drafted in first round (+110)
$2,500 to net $3,500 on over 5.5 offensive linemen taken in first round (-250)
Six biggest potential payouts on an NFL draft prop bet at William Hill
$500 to net $25,500 on Browns to draft Isaiah Simmons (50/1)
$500 to net $20,500 on Buccaneers to draft Jerry Jeudy (40/1)
$1,000 to net $16,000 on Redskins to draft Tua Tagovailoa (15/1)
$100 to net $15,100 on Jalen Hurts to be third quarterback drafted (150/1)
$100 to net $15,100 on Browns to draft Jeff Okudah (150/1)
$100 to net $15,100 on Redskins to draft Jeff Okudah (150/1)
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Biggest Changes
Five biggest NFL draft position odds shifts among all players listed at William Hill
Jeff Gladney: 9.5 (52.5 to 43)
Tee Higgins: 9 (25.5 to 34.5)
J.K. Dobbins: 8.5 (55.5 to 47)
Michael Pittman Jr: 8.5 (60.5 to 52)
Antoine Winfield Jr.: 8 (49.5 to 41.5)
Five biggest opening underdogs that are now the favorites in their respective William Hill draft prop market
Tua Tagovailoa third QB drafted (+700 to -130)
Giants to draft Isaiah Simmons (+300 to -120)
Dolphins to draft Justin Herbert (+200 to -120)
J.K. Dobbins to be drafted before Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+140 to -180)
Cesar Ruiz to be drafted in the first round (+130 to -110)
While there are plenty of interesting bets and resulting line movement, it’s always important to remember that since these props were first put out roughly a month ago, none of these players have gotten inherently better or worse at the game of football. Obviously, they haven’t been playing any football, but this year their ability to workout in front of scouts has been greatly diminished as well.
It’s very important to keep this in the back of your head as you peruse the options and consider putting some hard-earned money down on what may happen in the 2020 NFL Draft. Don’t let the “hype” or “shade” sway your opinion too far in either direction and be sure to look for places where the odds have moved in favor of your original opinion.
You can also use some of this information to see where the value may have already been extracted from your position as well. For example, if you were of the mindset that Tua Tagovailoa was going to be the third QB taken and you didn’t lock in a bet over the past few weeks, you can now see that most, if not all of the value has been extracted from that play as it’s moved from +700 to -130.
If you, like most of us, are working with a limited bankroll, it would be prudent to put your money somewhere else instead of getting the worst of a line after it’s already been bet into oblivion.
*Odds provided by William Hill
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NFL Draft Prop Bets 2020: Biggest Payouts & Most Popular Plays