Why UFC KOs Could Be on the Rise Saturday, and in the Near Future

If you see more KOs and finishes on Saturday at UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns, there might be a pretty good reason for the increased carnage.

Per MMA Junkie’s John Morgan, the UFC will be using a 25-foot Octagon at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas rather than the 30-footer that the promotion usually has for its events.

With less space to move around, we should see more engagement.

With increased engagement, there should theoretically be more action. Where there is more action, there should be more finishes-or the very least some really eventful fights. There is actually data to support this concept.

Reed Kuhn, who ran the Fightnomics.com blog, has researched this concept and the numbers prove what one might expect. Kuhn says fights that take place in an Octagon that is 25-feet, the probability of a KO or submission finish increases, and this is largely due to the smaller fighting structure producing 20 percent more strikes than in a larger cage.

In an interview with MMA Junkie, Kuhn said:

“It’s not anything magical, just that there’s more engagement in a smaller cage,” says Kuhn. “It’s silly to think there wouldn’t be an effect. Imagine shrinking a baseball field by 44 percent. You’re going to have way more home runs. Imagine doing the same thing to a hockey rink. It’s going to change how the game is played.”

How Will the Smaller Cage Affect the Fighters?

When you take a look at the main event, it’s difficult to assess how a smaller cage will impact Tyron Woodley or Gilbert Burns. Both men have speed and power, but the former has proven to be a little more explosive during his career. However, he is now 38 years old, and while most expect him to be in remarkable shape for the fight, you never know if age will impact him in this fight.

Woodley has traditionally struggled when opponents have come forward and backed him against the cage. However, that gameplan has only been successful when employed by opponents who are taller and longer than Burns, such as Rory MacDonald and Kamaru Usman.

Overall, I’d look for the wrestlers and fighters who are interested in taking the fight to perhaps be at a disadvantage. Oftentimes, fighters will look to get their backs against the cage as a means of defending the takedown. They will also use the cage once they’ve been taken down to get back to their fight.

With less real estate to cover, it could theoretically be easier for a fighter to use the cage as their friend.

How to Watch UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns

The information hasn’t officially been released in regards to location, but it is strongly believed the event will take place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The preliminary card begins at 6 pm ET and the main card gets underway at 10 pm ET.

Both segments of the show will be available to watch on live stream on ESPN+, and the main card should be available on ESPN. More confirmation on that should come as early as Tuesday afternoon.

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