Getty Cordarrelle Patterson celebrates with Atlanta Falcons fans.
The Atlanta Falcons got one of the best bargains in free agency in 2021. A player who outperformed his contract and exceeded expectations.
Unfortunately, the same player is also set to be one of the best bargains of NFL free agency in 2022. A recent slump in his numbers means the pending free agent may have to find a new home, according to a prominent writer.
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ESPN Names Falcons’ Leading Rusher a True ‘Bargain’
In his reassessment of the best signings and trades from last offseason, ESPN’s Bill Barnwell had an interesting take on the Falcons’ leading rusher. Specifically, Barnwell believes Cordarrelle Patterson outperformed his one-year deal worth $3 million.
Barnwell pinpointed how Patterson successfully shed the perception of him as little more than a talented kick returner and occasional wide receiver: “Well, on 200 touches from scrimmage this season, Patterson has scored 11 touchdowns. He has scored touchdowns on fades and run them in as an I-formation tailback. Ironically, it has actually been one of his worst seasons as a kick returner, but I’m sure the Falcons don’t mind.”
Those numbers, along with Barnwell’s reasonable contention Patterson is the main reason Atlanta has seven wins this season, justifies the bargain status. There’s no doubting that when Patterson has played well, the Falcons have done the same.
His best games have usually led to victories. Like when Patterson rushed for 108 yards and two touchdowns against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 12. The Falcons won that game 21-14.
They were also winners when Patterson gained 54 yards on the ground and added 60 more on seven receptions against the New York Jets in Week 5. Two weeks later, Patterson rushed for 60 yards and a score to help see off the Miami Dolphins, 30-28 on the road.
The uptake in production has been inspired by Falcons’ head coach Arthur Smith playing Patterson at running back more often. Moving into the backfield full time has yielded immediate returns, and plenty have taken notice of Patterson’s improvement, including PFF Fantasy Football’s Ian Hartitz:
Cordarrelle Patterson wins the award for Most Improved Player 🏆
The problem is Patterson’s better numbers could draw a crowd once the veteran market opens.
Patterson Considered a Great Deal for ’22
Barnwell structured his article to not only acknowledge last year’s bargains, but also to predict the best-value options for this offseason. In a departure from the rest of the names on his list, Barnwell named Patterson the best bargain at his position for 2022.
His logic is plausible and should concern Smith and Falcons’ general manager Terry Fontenot. Barnwell outlined the disparities in Patterson’s performances this season: “With his performance being touchdown-heavy and mostly coming in the first half of the season, I’m not sure everyone will believe that he can be an impact player on offense again in 2022. The Falcons have every reason to bring him back, but he might end up needing to prove himself again next season.”
A worrying pattern has emerged regarding Patterson’s workload in recent weeks. He’s managed only 60 yards rushing over his last three games combined, according to Pro Football Reference. Patterson has also made just five catches from a mere six targets across the same span.
As PFF host Brian Drake lamented, Patterson hasn’t exactly been kind to fantasy owners during the playoffs:
During the 3 weeks of the fantasy football playoffs, Cordarrelle Patterson scored 19.8 PPR points… COMBINED.
It may not be too difficult to explain the recent decline in Patterson’s production. He’s done enough to merit being a marked man by opposing defenses.
While that’s understandable, it’s also fair to wonder if the Falcons are already preparing for life without Patterson. That would explain the sudden decrease in his touches.
Smith and Fotenot may be playing a dangerous game if they’re phasing Patterson out, but there’s some logic behind such an approach. The player is a pending free agent and set to turn 31 on March 17.
The Falcons may give 28-year-old Mike Davis another chance to seize the lead-back role. Then Fontenot could add some young talent to the running back room via the 2022 NFL draft.
It’s also true Patterson may not be as much of a bargain as Barnwell anticipates. He’s proven he can be a lead back during a season when wide receivers like San Francisco 49ers‘ star Deebo Samuel have played bigger roles in the running game. Both of those things give Patterson some nice leverage when it comes to negotiating a more lucrative next contract.
The irony here is Patterson wants to stay with the Falcons. He recently made that clear, per Kris Rhim of the team’s official website.
Bringing back the leading rusher and receiver into a scheme he likes would be the simplest way for the Falcons to build on the progress made during Smith and Fontenot’s first year.