Getty Mel Kiper Jr. (L) working another NFL draft.
Mel Kiper Jr. released his first mock draft of 2022 for ESPN on Wednesday, and it contained some interesting tidbits for fans of the Atlanta Falcons.
Specifically, Kiper shared his thoughts about the situation with Matt Ryan and the quarterback’s likely destination next season. Kiper also explained why the Falcons might avoid a pass-rusher with the eighth-overall pick, despite owning the most sack-shy defense in the NFL in 2022.
Making a pick for the Falcons wasn’t easy for Kiper, who identified it as the most difficult choice:
2022 Mock Draft 1.0 coming tomorrow. Toughest pick for me was Atlanta at No. 8. Who would you all give the Falcons there?
Nonetheless, he made his call and sent the Falcons a player who will require “a leap of faith” from general manager Terry Fontenot and head coach Arthur Smith.
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Brilliant but Brittle Cornerback a Popular Pick for Falcons
Kiper eventually plumped for LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. as the Falcons’ best option in the first round of the 2022 NFL draft. His reasoning began with an explanation for why the Falcons won’t take a quarterback: “I thought hard about a quarterback. My buddy Chris Mortensen, though, says the Falcons are committed to Matt Ryan for 2022, which means this might be too high to take a QB who’s not going to play right away.”
Anyone trying to move Matt Ryan to Pittsburgh as Ben Roethlisberger’s successor can put that speculation to rest.
Falcons coach Arthur Smith wanted Ryan to return when he took the job & he has made it clear to owner Arthur Blank and GM Terry Fontenot that Ryan is his QB for 2022
Ryan staying put would naturally give Fontenot and Smith freedom to explore a ton of other options for improving the roster. One obvious choice would be to land a bluechip edge-rusher to beef up the front seven.
Kiper doesn’t believe the Falcons will take the latter route because Atlanta’s best bet will already be gone: “If David Ojabo was still on the board, I probably would have gone with him because the Falcons finished last in the league in sacks (18) this season. But there’s a little bit of a drop-off in the edge-rush tiers, and my next guy doesn’t have a top-10 grade.”
With two of the most notable positions the Falcons might reinforce off limits, Kiper has made a pick based on adding to an existing strength. He noted how Stingley would make a good partner for “rising star A.J. Terrell.”
There’s plenty of logic here after Terrell established himself as a true shutdown corner during the 2021 season. He’s the cornerstone of the secondary, but Terrell needs more support in his third year.
Kiper’s pick is also based on Fontenot and Smith risk accepting an element of risk. It comes from Stingley’s lengthy injury history, which Kiper addresses. No team will be able to ignore foot injuries that have limited the cover man to just 10 games the last two years.
Kiper thinks any team will be rewarded for staying strong and still being brave enough to use a top-10 pick on Stingley: “A team is going to have to take a little bit of a leap of faith with Stingley because he hasn’t played great for two seasons. The draft is all about upside, though, and he has the potential to be a superstar. I’m hoping he can work out at the combine to ease some concerns.”
The same sentiment is shared by many mock draft writers. Stingley is becoming a popular pick for the Falcons, with CBS Sports’ pair Ryan Wilson and Chris Trapasso both also sending the Tigers’ star to Atlanta.
Stingley’s Worth the Risk
That Stingley is still widely touted to go in the top 10, despite all the time he’s missed, speaks volumes about his ability. Said talent is worth the risk for the Falcons, who only need to look back at his 2019 performances to know Stingley is a special player.
Most of the plaudits he’s received date back to when LSU took the national title on the strength of a dominant defense. Stingley was no bit-part player on the star-studded unit.
Instead, he intercepted six passes and broke up 15 others, according to sports-reference.com. Those are the numbers of a born playmaker, a cornerback with an opportunistic streak sure to be welcomed by Falcons’ defensive coordinator Dean Pees.
Pairing Stingley with Terrell would make it more difficult for an offense to move its No. 1 wide receiver away from the strength of the Falcons’ coverage. It’s something Pro Football Focus Draft Expert Emmanuel “EJ” Jenkins believes Terrell benefited from during 2021:
A.J. Terrell by every PFF metric is having one of the best seasons by a corner.
But reviewing his tape, there’s a clear discrepancy, he just isn’t facing the top options on offense week in and week out.
Out of Terrell’s 61 targets
Against WR1s: 19
WR2&3s: 30
TEs: 6
RBs: 6
Terrell often stays on the same side of the field, so it’s natural he’s not always lined up against an opponent’s best target. Teams are likely to take more steps to avoid Terrell after his breakout campaign, something the Falcons can counter by having Stingley in the lineup.
Locking down both sides of the field and forcing quarterbacks to hold onto the ball would be a surefire, and likely cheaper, way to improve Atlanta’s dire pass rush.