Getty Baker Mayfield runs away from the Ravens in 2020.
The Baltimore Ravens didn’t win the NFC North after accomplishing the feat in dominating fashion during the 2019 year, and that’s something they are aiming to change in 2021.
Getting it done is not going to be easy, however, considering the relative difficulty of their conference. Making sure the team is more competitive against their biggest division rivals has been a huge goal for the offseason, but has it been successful? A new simulation hints that might not be the case.
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Recently, Pro Football Focus took the task of simulating the season 10,000 times. Perhaps surprisingly, the Cleveland Browns turned up winners of the AFC North 46.3% of the time. In second position were the Ravens, who won the conference 34.4% of the time. Bringing up the rear quite surprisingly were the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals, who finished with under 10% odds to win the division based on the simulations.
PFF simulated the NFL season 10,000 times. Chance to win the AFC North
🔹 Browns – 46.3%
🔹 Ravens – 34.4%
🔹 Bengals – 9.7%
🔹 Steelers – 9.6%
Reality says that all this talk is more than a bit premature, but it’s no question there could be a new divisional favorite in the Browns when all is said and done. The Ravens and Steelers will have a lot to say about that, but in May, this is how things look to be shaping up.
Ravens NFC North Competition Getting Tougher
Not only do the Ravens have the makings of a potentially elite team, but the competition around them in the standings is elite as well. The resurgent Cleveland Browns are hungry to make a run after last year’s coming out party, and the Pittsburgh Steelers are also motivated to retain the status quo as the best team in the division after winning the title last year. Additionally, while some might overlook the Cincinnati Bengals at this point in time, the team has an exciting young quarterback in Joe Burrow and are trying to build things up for the future on both sides of the ball. They might not be there yet, but it’s clear they are getting ever closer to the goal.
Add it all up and the Ravens have a lot of heavy lifting to do in order to get back to the top of the mountain. They have a good shot to do so, but maybe not quite the best shot as some seem to think in early simulations ahead of the 2021 season.
Ravens 2021 Schedule at a Glance
Baltimore’s 2021 schedule is going to be right near the top in terms of difficulty. The Ravens will play their normal slate of games against the AFC North, which features battles against the likes of the resurgent Cleveland Browns, steady Pittsburgh Steelers and potentially improved Cincinnati Bengals. Otherwise, the team’s crossover for the NFC will come in the form of contests against NFC North foes like the Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions. The Ravens will also face games against the Los Angeles Rams, Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts in 2021.
As a whole, this will make the Ravens’ schedule fairly difficult overall, but the team managed to go 10-6 last season even as there were plenty of struggles, so they could be looking at similar results this season or even better if their offense comes around.
This exercise shows the Ravens should be right there in terms of the AFC North in 2021, but getting over the hump could be their biggest challenge.
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