Getty Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and Bills QB Josh Allen embrace each other after a regular season game on December 8, 2019.
The Baltimore Ravens will conclude the AFC East gauntlet with their biggest game of the season thus far in Week 4 on Sunday, October 2. They will host the Superbowl-favorite Buffalo Bills at M&T Stadium and the game will be broadcasted on CBS at 1:00 p.m. Eastern.
While they will be looking for their first home win of the year and second in a row over an elite opponent, the Bills are looking to bounce back from a Week 3 loss to the same team that shocked the Ravens in Week 2. This game features several interesting storylines, key matchups, and could playoff implications down the road since they’re both AFC teams.
Top Storylines
Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen Part III
The headliners for this game are the two quarterbacks that were taken in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft, who are facing off for the third time in their careers as starters, and are currently among the frontrunners in the league MVP race. They each have a win against the other and the victor of this game will not only break the head-to-head tie but will likely be the clear-cut frontrunner to be named MVP heading into the second quarter of the season.
Weather Could Play a Factor
Sunday’s forecast in Baltimore is expected to be a rainy day so ball security will be paramount. The Ravens have been one of the best teams in the league at avoiding turnovers with the league’s second-best differential (eight takeaways to just three giveaways). In preparation for this likely eventuality, they practiced with a wet ball during the week.
“I think we definitely take that into account, you saw us out there with the wet balls today getting ready for that eventuality,” offensive coordinator Greg Roman said in a press conference on Septemeber 29, 2022. “It will probably change the course of how the game goes. We’ve got to do a great job challenging the weather and the elements.”
This could also mean that the Ravens could look to lean a little more on their running game which showed some promising signs of improvement last week in the team’s rebound win over the New England Patriots. J.K. Dobbins will be playing in his second game of the season and first-ever in front of a full home crowd and Justice Hill will be looking to build off a strong performance last week where he showed the most juice of any of the team’s running backs this season so far.
Limiting QB Runs
The Ravens’ defense likes to run a lot of man coverage in the backend and at the intermediate level which can lead to opportunities for opposing quarterbacks to take off and run for first downs and even touchdowns if they can find an open target and a lane opens up. Against the Patriots last week, their lack of rush lane integrity allowed Mac Jones who is almost a strictly pocket passer, run for 31 yards on five attempts and score his first career rushing touchdown. If a dynamic and dangerous true dual threat like Allen is afforded the same opportunities, he’ll make the Ravens pay dearly and will rack up plenty of yards and first downs with his legs.
“First of all, the quarterback got kind of garbage yards – I’d call them – that shouldn’t have happened,” head coach John Harbaugh said in a press conference on Septemeber 26, 2022. “Those are the ones that our guys will be most upset about. Those are yards that really just … They aren’t even rushing yards, really; they’re pass-rushing yards. And we’ve got to do a better job with our rush lanes.”
History of Matchup
The Ravens lead the all-time series between the two teams 6-4 and have won three of the last four meetings dating back to 2016. Their last matchup also played in inclement weather in the form of swirling winds that forced passes to sail, kicks to veer off course, and resulted in a 17-3 loss for the Ravens in the Divisional Round of the 2020 playoffs on January 16, 2021. Their last win in the series came 24-17 in Week 14 of Jackson’s unanimous MVP season in 2019. That game was played in Buffalo and the last time the Bills came to Baltimore was in Jackson and Allen’s rookie year in 2018 and resulted in a commanding 47-3 Ravens win in the season opener.
Final Injury Report
The Ravens had just three players listed on their final injury report and the two that are listed as doubtful to play are veteran outside linebacker Justin Houston and offensive lineman Patrick Mekari. While both of those players are expected to miss this week’s game with minor injuries they suffered against the Patriots that sidelined them for the entire week of practice, All-Pro left tackle Ronnie Stanley could be making his long-awaited return against the Bills.
He was a full participant in practice on Wednesday and Thursday before being given a non-injury-related rest day off on Friday. He is officially listed as questionable which usually means he is more likely to play than not. If he is not, the Ravens might be forced to turn to fourth-round rookie Daniel Faalele who finished last week’s game in place of Mekari after he went down in the first quarter.
For the first time in what feels like forever, the Ravens aren’t the most injured team heading into a game as the Bills’ final injury report featured many more names and uncertainty. They have several starters and key players listed as questionable that were limited or held out of practice this week and have already ruled out three players that included staring rookie cornerback Christian Benford.
Matchups to Watch
QB Lamar Jackson v LB Matt Milano
The last time these two teams met in the regular season, Jackson made Milano go viral by juking him out so hard he did the ‘teach me how to Dougie’ dance in the open field behind the line of scrimmage.
In honor of the Ravens’ Week 4 matchup with the Bills, here’s Lamar Jackson slicing and dicing Matt Milano’s ankles
The sixth-year pro is one of the Bills’ best players on defense now and will try his best to limit Jackson when he does keep the ball on scrambles and designed runs. However, his toughest task will be to try to take away passing lanes over the middle of the field where the MVP frontrunner is absolutely surgical.
Ravens Wide Receivers v Bills Secondary
Buffalo will be shorthanded in their defensive backfield and relying on inexperienced players for the second straight week which bodes well for the chances of the Ravens’ potent passing attack to have a good day through the air if the weather isn’t too bad. After being limited to just two catches for 59 yards that included an impressive 35-yard gain against the Patriots last week, expect second-year breakout star Rashod Bateman to get involved early and often as well as the continued emergence of third-year pro Devin Duvernay who is blossoming into one of the most dangerous All-Purpose weapons in the league. With so many youngsters at cornerback for the Bills, don’t be surprised if veteran wideout Demarcus Robinson gets one of them to overcommit on a double-move and gets behind them for a big gain or even a touchdown.
Ravens Third Corner vs. Bills Wide Receivers
The loss of two-time Pro Bowl veteran cornerback Kyle Fuller to a torn ACL in the season opener has been felt a lot harder than the Ravens likely have anticipated. Over the past two weeks, opposing quarterbacks have targeted their third cornerback in key situations and especially on high leverage downs when deploying sets of three or more receivers. They tend to stay away from Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters for the most part unless a coverage is blown and opt instead to go after the likes of second-year pro Brandon Stephens as well as fourth-round rookie corners Jalyn Armour-Davis and Damarion ‘Pepe’ Williams.
This has led to 150-plus yard receiving outings for a trio of current and former Dolphins receivers in Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVante Parker in back-to-back weeks. The Ravens can’t afford to consistently give up big gains to the Bills’ top wide receiver Stefon Diggs this week. The Maryland native has an extremely strong bond with Allen and the two are capable of taking over a game if they are allowed. Expect Ravens’ defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to double cover Diggs on almost every play and especially when he’s lined up on one of the three young corners.
Ravens Pass Rush v Right Side of Bills’ O-Line
While the left side of Buffalo’s starting offensive line boasts the stout pairing of 2021 Pro Bowlers Rodger Saffold and Dion Dawkins, the right side features second-year pro Spencer Brown and fourth-year pro Ryan Bates, neither of which are household names and should be targeted by the Ravens edge and interior pass rushers. With Houston likely to miss this week and with Michael Pierce on season-ending injured reserve with torn biceps, veteran newcomer Jason Pierre-Paul and youngsters Odafe Oweh, Travis Jones, and Justin Madubuike could be poised for standout performances.
Von Miller v Ravens LT
Stanley’s health status for this week will be key in keeping eight-time Pro Bowl outside linebacker Von Miller and the rest of the Bills’ tenacious and deep edge rushers at bay on Sunday. Patriots edge defender Deatrich Wise was able to beat Faalele for a pair of first-half sacks last week before the rookie settled down in the second half of the game. Having to go up against future Hall of Famer with plenty left in the tank like Miller in his first career start at a new position after exclusively playing right tackle since high school would be a daunting task for a seasoned veteran let alone an out-of-position rookie.
Predictions
Unless the Ravens can keep a lid on or at least limit the Allen-Diggs connection, I fully expect this game to be a bit of a shootout. If their run game can build off the success they had last week and the defense is able to get Jackson and Co. an extra possession or two via turnovers or clutch stops, they could wind up winning by more than one possession. In the end, the banged-up Bills will leave Baltimore with their second loss of the season and Jackson will lead his team to victory with another masterful four-plus touchdown performance where he does more damage through the air with his arm against a young secondary than on the ground with his arm.
Final score: Ravens 44 Bills 38