2024 MLB Homerun Derby Best Bets

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New York Mets' Pete Alonso grew up watching the Home Run Derby and on Monday night he was crowned its champion in his rookie season.

The field is set for the most exciting All-Star event in sports—the MLB Home Run Derby, taking place on Monday, July 13, at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN. Out of the eight participants, seven are All-Star selections, with the exception of Texas Rangers outfielder Adolis Garcia, who will have the advantage of competing at Globe Life Field.

Once again, New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso is the favorite to win the event. As a two-time champion (2019, 2021), Alonso aims to join Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr. as the only player to win the Derby three times. This will mark his fifth appearance in the competition. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.

Home Run Derby Distance Traveled Bet

Alec Bohm Longest Homerun Hit Under 449.5 Feet (-130, DraftKings)

Alec Bohm enters the event with the longest odds to win, which isn’t surprising given that he has hit only 11 home runs this season and has never surpassed 20 in his first three years in the majors. He’s more of a gap-to-gap hitter, leading the league in doubles, but that doesn’t translate well to success in a Home Run Derby.

Currently, Bohm has the third-lowest average bat speed among the participants, behind only Jose Ramirez and Adolis Garcia. He’s managed to hit just seven balls over 400 feet this season, with his longest home run reaching 427 feet. Since the start of 2022, he has only hit 24 balls over 400 feet, with just nine going over 420 feet. While in-game numbers don’t always reflect his potential in this format, I would be surprised if he manages to hit one over 455 feet tonight.

Bohm also has the lowest Round 1 home run total at 18.5, meaning he would need an exceptional performance to advance to the second round. This scenario means he’ll have about 40 pitches plus 3-6 bonus balls to achieve something he has never done in a big-league game. Last year, only three out of eight competitors managed to hit a ball 455 feet or more in the first round, despite competing in a more challenging park in Seattle. Therefore, this line feels too high.

Home Run Derby Winner Bet

Bobby Witt Jr. to Win the Homerun Derby (+475, DraftKings)

While Bobby Witt Jr.  has only hit 16 home runs this season, I don’t think that’s a major concern. Just look at Vlad Guerrero Jr., who had only 13 homers before the All-Star break last year and ended up dominating and winning.

That said, there are some different rules this year. There’s a 40-pitch maximum in the first round and semifinals, no bracket format, and batters can earn an extra “out” with home runs that travel 425 feet or more. This setup is very favorable for Bobby.

Witt leads the field in several categories: he has the most home runs over 425 feet, the highest max exit velocity at 116.9 MPH, the most “no-doubt” home runs, the longest home run this season at 468 feet, and the highest average home run distance at 417 feet. Interestingly, if Witt had hit all 16 of his home runs at Globe Life Park this season, he would actually be sitting around 21 home runs due to the dimensions of the outfield.

He grew up just 20 minutes from Globe Life, won the High School Home Run Derby in 2018, and likely feels motivated after not receiving a start in the All-Star Game. The key takeaway? Every Home Run Derby winner since 2016 has shared two important traits: a max exit velocity over 116 MPH and being under the age of 26. Bobby Witt Jr. is the only player in this field tonight who meets both criteria.

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