After an exciting First Four, the NCAA Tournament’s first round gets underway on Thursday, March 21, 2024, with 16 games. While you’re rooting for your bracket, we’re here to give you 10 AI-powered college basketball prop picks that can give you an edge in your bets and DFS plays.
We’ve picked out 10 players from the games starting in the mid-afternoon window (beginning with North Carolina vs. Wagner at 2:45 p.m. Eastern) taking you through the end of the night, with the last game, Drake vs. Washington State, which tips off at 10:05 p.m.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 12 a.m. on March 21, 2024.
1. Melvin Council Jr., Wagner – Over 13.5 Points (-125)
Council and the No. 16-seeded Wagner Seahawks are coming off a thrilling First Four victory over Howard. They now face the tough task of taking on No. 1 North Carolina. Our model is projecting Council to score 13.7 points, just above his over 13.5 points prop. Council is averaging 14.8 points per game and scored 21 in the First Four win. Council will need to have a big game if Wagner wants any chance of slaying the Tar Heels.
2. Drew Thelwell, Morehead State – Over 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-125)
Justin Casterline/GettyDrew Thelwell of Morehead State during a game against Purdue.
Thelwell is the type of player who can fill a stat sheet with points, rebounds and assists, so the combo prop of over 18.5 is a great play. The Morehead State guard is facing a big challenge against Illinois. Our model projects Thelwell to have 11.1 points, 3.3 rebounds and 6 assists, putting him above the prop total. He is averaging 10 points, 3.1 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game and had 21 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists in the OVC Championship game that sent the Eagles to the NCAA Tournament.
3. Jackson Shelstad, Oregon – Over 12.5 Points (+110)
Shelstad and the Ducks went on a wild run in the final Pac-12 tournament to take down Colorado and earn a spot in the tournament. Shelstad, who scored 17 points in that game and 21 in the semifinals against Arizona, is projected by our model to score 13.5 points in Oregon’s first round game against the South Carolina Gamecocks.
Oregon, the No. 11 seed, is only a +1.5-point underdog against South Carolina. Shelstad is averaging 13.1 points per game this season and has scored over 15 points in four of the Ducks last six games.
4. Dylan Disu, Texas – Under 15.5 Points (-105)
GettyDylan Disu of Texas.
Disu is projected by our model to have 14.6 points against the Colorado State Rams, who are coming off a First Four victory. Disu has averaged 15.8 points per game, but he’s prone to foul trouble and scored only 3 points in the Longhorns’ Big 12 tournament loss to Kansas State.
5. Trey Townsend, Oakland – Over 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)
Townsend and Oakland are the clear underdogs against Kentucky, and they’ll need a big game on multiple fronts from Townsend if they want any chance of upsetting the Wildcats. Our model projects Townsend to have 20.4 points, 10.3 rebounds and 2.7 assists. Townsend is averaging 16.9 points, 7.8 rebounds and 3.1 assists this season. He’s coming off a monster performance in the Horizon League tournament, including 38 points, 11 rebounds and 5 assists in the championship. He also had 15 points with 8 rebounds and 4 assists in the second round and
As a bonus, take a look at his teammate, Blake Lampman, who is projected to score 11.6 points, with 4 rebounds and 3 assists, just under the combo prop total, but he’s coming off a Horizon League title game in which he had 12 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists. And he’s averaged 13.3 points, 3.2 rebounds and 3 assists per game this season. His combo total is set at 18.5 (-115).
6. Graham Ike, Gonzaga – Over 16.5 Points (-115)
GettyGraham Ike will need to stay out of foul trouble to meet his points total.
This one is a bit of a risk. While we’re banking on foul trouble for Texas’ Disu, we’re hoping Ike can stay on the court for the Bulldogs. Our model projects him to have 16.9 points against McNeese State. Ike was in foul trouble in the WCC semifinals and finals, scoring just 10 points in each game. But he was on a roll to finish the season, scoring more than 20 points in seven consecutive games. If he doesn’t pick up early fouls, he could cruise past this prop total.
7. Zeke Mayo, South Dakota State – Over 1.5 3-pointers (-190)
Mayo and South Dakota State will have to jack up 3s against Iowa State if they want to upset the No. 2 seed. Our model projects Mayo to hit 2.2 3-pointers on 6 attempts, giving him several chances to hit 2 shots. Mayo it 5 3-pointers in the Summit League Championship on 7 attempts and is averaging 2.6 3-pointers made per game this year.
8. DJ Horne, NC State – Over 15.5 Points (-110)
Greg Fiume/Getty Images)DJ Horne helped lead NC State to an unexpected ACC Championship victory.
Like Oregon, Horne and North Carolina State enter the NCAA Tournament after an improbable run to a conference title. Our model projects Horne to score 16.2 points. He’s averaging 16.9 points per game and erupted for 29 against North Carolina in the ACC Championship. He’ll need a similar performance if the Wolfpack want the magic to continue against Texas Tech.
9. Rylan Jones, Samford – Over 3.5 Assists (-135)
The Utah State and University of Utah transfer is projected by our model to dish out 4 assists against Kansas. Samford is a popular upset pick and Jones will need to distribute the ball well if the Bulldogs want to pull off the win. Jones averaged 4.9 assists per game this season and had 4 in the SOCON Championship and 6 in the conference semifinals.
10. Tucker DeVries Over 31.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)
GettyDrake’s Tucker DeVries could fill up the stat sheet against Washington State.
Tucker DeVries, whose father, Darian DeVries, is Drake’s coach, is another stat sheet stuffer. He’s projected to have 19.3 points, 7.3 rebounds and 3.1 assists (29.7 combined) by our model. That’s pretty close to the 31.5 combo prop total, and DeVries has shown he can exceed expectations. He had 27 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists (39) in the MVC Championship game.
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March Madness Bets: 10 AI-Powered College Basketball Prop Picks for March 21