Getty Detroit Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal.
Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for April 22. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Prop Bets
Jared Jones Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-130, DraftKings)
Jared Jones has been on fire lately, boasting an impressive 8 strikeouts per game over 5.7 innings on average in his last 4 starts. He’s consistently among the top strikeout pitchers in the league, currently ranking 7th despite playing fewer games than others in the top 10. His stats speak for themselves, with elite numbers in K%, BB%, Whiff%, and Chase rate, placing him in the 95th percentile or higher.
With a K/9 ratio of 12.5, he’s right up there with some of the best strikeout pitchers in the game. Facing the Milwaukee Brewers, who rank 7th in strikeouts against right-handed pitchers this season and have been striking out a lot lately, Jones has a favorable matchup. Considering the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen was overworked last night, Jones might have a longer stint on the mound, increasing the chances of him surpassing the 6.5 strikeouts mark. Our model projects Jones to strike out 8 batters tonight.
Tarik Skubal Over 17.5 Outs (-135, DraftKings)
Tarik Skubal has been consistently surpassing 17.5 outs in the majority of his recent starts, including his last 3 out of 4 this season and all 4 out of 4 on the road towards the end of the 2023 season. He’s facing a favorable matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays, a team he’s expected to handle well.
Skubal’s efficiency is evident, averaging around 3.6 pitches per plate appearance this season. He’s also had success against the projected Rays lineup, holding them to a batting average of .188 across 37 at-bats against him. Although the Rays rank towards the bottom half in batting average, walks, and on-base percentage against left-handed pitchers, they’ve recently allowed both Cortes and Detmers to pitch for 7 innings. Our model projects Skubal to get around 17 outs, but I think he goes pitches deeper into the game tonight after having a handful of starts under his belt in 2024 so far.
Lock of the Day
Ryan Weathers Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135, DraftKings)
Weathers gets a matchup against the Braves who have the 5th lowest strikeout percentage this season and 7th least to left-handed pitchers. Weathers also only has 3 strikeouts on 21 at bats against Atlanta Braves batters. This gives us a very low strikeout percentage of 14.28%. Using this percentage Weathers would have to see an estimated 35 batters compared to his 22.3 average this season.
Aside from this matchup, Weathers has only hit this line in 2 out of 16 games since 2022 averaging 3.4 Strikeouts. In away games this drops to just 1 out of 12 games with an average of 3.1 strikeouts. Great under here against a tough matchup. Our model projects Weathers to strike out 3.8 batters tonight.
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