Getty Logan Gilbert reacts to a strikeout during a March 30 game against the Boston Red Sox.
Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on today. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for April 23. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Prop Bets
Logan Gilbert Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-105, DraftKings)
Gilbert boasts impressive control as a starter, ranking in the 89th percentile for BB% with only 4.0 so far this season. He has consistently performed well in this regard, being under in 72% of his starts last year and in all 4 starts this year. Despite facing a strong offensive team like the Texas Rangers, who excel against left-handed pitchers but struggle against right-handers and tend to swing early in counts, Gilbert’s pitching style, characterized by filling the strike zone, is unlikely to prompt them to become more patient. Additionally, this is Gilbert’s 2nd start against the Rangers this season, and he has already performed well against them once. Furthermore, the Rangers’ recent trend shows a decrease in their walk rate over the past week, indicating they are becoming even less patient, which plays into Gilbert’s strengths.
Ramon Laureano Under 0.5 Hits (+115, DraftKings)
Ramon Laureano’s sluggish start to the 2024 season is compounded by a tough matchup against the resurgent Tanner Houck. With a stellar 1.35 ERA in his first 4 outings, Houck has been particularly effective against right-handed batters, holding them to a mere .231 batting average. His dominance against righties is evident over the past few seasons, with consistently impressive performances. When facing right-handed hitters, Houck heavily relies on his nasty slider and sinker, which account for 95% of his pitches to them this season.
Unfortunately for Laureano, his struggles against these pitches were evident last season, where he managed just a .203 batting average with a 25% strikeout rate against sliders and a .224 batting average with a .302 xwOBA against sinkers. Furthermore, Laureano’s offensive woes extend beyond his performance against specific pitches. His overall hitting has been subpar in recent seasons, with slash lines of .224/.304/.371 in 2023, .211/.287/.376 in 2022, and a dismal .178 average with a 28% strikeout rate so far in 2024.
Against right-handed pitching, Laureano’s production has been even worse, with batting averages of .200 in 2023, .211 in 2022, and .217 in 2021. Adding to Laureano’s challenges, the Boston Red Sox bullpen has been solid, ranking 13th or better in key metrics like strikeout rate, FIP, and ERA. With a day of rest yesterday, they should be well-prepared to support Houck’s strong start.
Lock of the Day
Patrick Corbin Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-170, DraftKings)
Patrick Corbin appears to be a strong candidate to bet against once again, especially considering our successful wager against him just a week ago, when he faced the Los Angeles Dodgers on April 16th and conceded 9 hits in 6.1 innings.
Corbin has surpassed this line in 21 out of 32 games last season and in all 4 games this season. His performance this year has been abysmal, with an 8.06 ERA, 1.97 WHIP, and an alarming 14.51 H/9.
The Dodgers excel against left-handed pitchers, ranking 8th in batting average, 8th in on-base percentage, and 10th in OPS against lefties in the league.
Corbin’s struggles against the Dodgers have been evident in recent matchups. Since joining the Washington Nationals, he’s gone over 5.5 hits allowed in 5 out of 6 games against the Dodgers and in all of his last 5 matchups. With Corbin yielding 7 or more hits in every start this season and considering the potent lineup of the Dodgers, it’s highly likely that this trend will persist. Additionally, there’s potential value in betting on Corbin to have under 3.5 strikeouts, although it’s not my preferred bet.
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