Getty Texas Rangers left fielder Evan Carter
Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for April 24. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Prop Bets
Joe Ryan Under 6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+135, DraftKings)
Joe Ryan faces the Chicago White Sox today, who rank 9th in strikeout percentage and present a fairly average matchup. However, what makes this matchup intriguing is Ryan’s history against the current White Sox batters. With only 10 strikeouts in 57 at-bats, Ryan holds an incredibly low 17.54% strikeout percentage against them. Based on this rate, Ryan would need to face roughly 39.9 batters to meet this line, compared to his average of 22.6 batters faced.
Beyond this favorable matchup, Ryan has consistently met or fallen below this line in 74% of his games since 2022, averaging 6.2 strikeouts per game. This suggests a strong likelihood of Ryan continuing his trend of success against the White Sox lineup.
Bryce Miller Under 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-110, DraftKings)
Bryce Miller faces a challenging matchup against the Texas Rangers, who currently boast the 2nd-lowest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitchers this season. Moreover, Miller has only managed to strike out 3 out of 27 at-bats plus walks against current Rangers batters, resulting in a remarkably low strikeout percentage of 11.11%. Based on this percentage, Miller would need to face an estimated 45 batters to surpass this threshold. Interestingly, he has fallen short of this mark in both previous matchups against the Rangers in his career, recording two strikeouts in each game.
While this matchup seems daunting, Miller does have a strong track record in away games, boasting a 42% hit rate overall. Thus, while this matchup presents a formidable challenge, Miller’s success away from home adds a layer of optimism for his performance.
Lock of the Day
Paul DeJong Under 0.5 Hits (-145, DraftKings)
Paul DeJong has consistently struggled with a low expected batting average (xBA), ranking in the bottom 10% for 4 consecutive seasons and bottom 5% for 3 out of those 4. This season, he’s batting .216 with an xBA of .179 and a high strikeout rate of 40.7%.
Taking a closer look at his performance against right-handed pitchers over the past few years, in 2023, he managed a .203 batting average with a 30% strikeout rate. In 2022, his batting average against righties dropped to .159 with a 31% strikeout rate. However, in 2021, he fared slightly better with a .207 batting average and a 23% strikeout rate.
Facing Joe Ryan adds to DeJong’s challenge, as Ryan has displayed impressive stats, ranking in the 88th percentile for strikeout rate and 74th percentile for xBA in 2023. Moreover, this season, Ryan has improved even further with a 32.3% strikeout rate (88th percentile) and a .184 xBA (89th percentile). He’s particularly effective against right-handed batters, holding them to a .179 batting average in his 4 starts in 2024. Although he faced some struggles last year, his performance in the 2 years prior suggests a return to form.
Additionally, the Minnesota Twins bullpen, which DeJong likely will encounter later in the game, boasts the highest strikeout rate, the 11th lowest opponent batting average, and the 5th best ERA so far in 2024.
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