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Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for August 2. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Kutter Crawford Over 16.5 Pitching Outs Recorded (-130, DraftKings)
This is an excellent opportunity for Kutter Crawford to bounce back after missing the line in his last two starts. Crawford has been one of the league’s top pitchers in terms of innings pitched this season, ranking 7th overall in pitches per plate appearance among qualified pitchers.
He fell short in his previous two outings due to challenging matchups against the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees where he allowed 5 and 6 runs, respectively. However, today he faces a Texas Rangers offense that has struggled against right-handed pitchers this season and continues to do so after the All-Star Break.
Since the All-Star Break, the Rangers’ offense ranks 28th in OBP and 29th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, mirroring their 26th-ranked wRC+ for the season. Their lineup today features only two players with a wOBA over .300 against righties.
This game presents a prime opportunity for Crawford to get back on track. When he has allowed 4 or fewer earned runs and thrown at least 70 pitches this season, he has surpassed this line in 15 out of 17 starts. Additionally, the Rangers haven’t scored more than 4 runs off a starting right-handed pitcher since July 7th.
The weather forecast is clear, though temperatures will reach 101 degrees. The bullpen is also well-rested after a day off. I’m confident Crawford will reach at least 6 innings in a strong rebound performance against a struggling Rangers lineup.
Lock of the Day
Joe Ryan to Record a Win (-120, DraftKings)
Joe Ryan faces the Chicago White Sox, who are by far the worst team in the MLB in terms of offense. They rank at the bottom in wRC+ and OBP for the season, over the last 30 days, and the last 14 days. They have allowed 17 out of the last 21 starting right-handed pitchers to limit them to 2 or fewer earned runs.
Ryan has had some struggles recently, but his advanced statistics paint a different picture. He boasts a solid 2.84 xERA, placing him in the 90th percentile among qualified pitchers. His xBA of .213 is also impressive, ranking in the 83rd percentile.
On the other side, Davis Martin will be making only his second start of the season for the White Sox. In his debut, he allowed just 1 run over 60 pitches, but his underlying metrics were concerning, with a .276 xBA and a 5.76 xERA. In his last full season, he had a 4.71 xERA (17th percentile) and a .268 xBA (12th percentile).
Given these factors, the Minnesota Twins should have a strong chance of taking advantage at home, as they possess the 7th-best offense in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers since the All-Star Break.
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MLB Best Player Prop Bets for August 2