Getty Corbin Burnes pitching during a June 22 game against the Houston Astros.
Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for July 10. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Corbin Burnes Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-140, DraftKings)
Corbin Burnes has demonstrated a strong season with a notable .227 expected batting average (xBA), placing him in the 71st percentile among pitchers. His ability to limit hard contact is also impressive, ranking in the 92nd percentile for hard-hit rate. Despite these solid metrics, Burnes has managed to stay under the 5.5 hits allowed mark in 61% of his starts this year, suggesting he consistently outperforms expectations in this regard.
Facing the Chicago Cubs lineup today further bolsters Burnes’ case. Seven out of nine projected batters have posted batting averages below .250 against right-handed pitchers this season, indicating a favorable matchup for Burnes. Particularly in the bottom half of the Cubs’ lineup, hitters have struggled even more, collectively batting .217 or less on the season.
Zach Eflin Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+105, DraftKings)
Known for his exceptional command with a minuscule 2.1% walk rate (placing him in the 99th percentile), Zach Eflin consistently throws strikes, which typically leads to a high number of balls in play. Despite not being a strikeout-heavy pitcher (ranking in the 19th percentile for whiff rate and 24th percentile for strikeout rate), this setup is ideal for this type of prop bet.
So far this season, Eflin has allowed 6 or more hits in 11 out of 16 starts, reflecting a vulnerability to contact. His expected batting average (xBA) sits at .248 (43rd percentile), indicating he’s been somewhat susceptible to hits. At home, he has gone over the 5.5 hits allowed mark in 4 out of 6 starts, conceding 6 hits each to Los Angeles and Chicago in separate outings. Moreover, Eflin has consistently pitched deep into games, facing 24 or more batters in his last 5 starts and surpassing 90 pitches in each of his last 3 outings.
The New York Yankees lineup, known for their patience (lowest swing rate over the last 14 days), might adjust their approach against Eflin today. Despite Eflin’s past success against them earlier this season (6 innings, 3 hits), history shows he has alternated performances against them, once following up with allowing 7 hits in their subsequent meeting last season. While some Yankees hitters like Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo, and D.J LeMahieu have had success against Eflin with a .217 xBA collectively, the team has still managed a respectable .234 batting average against right-handed pitchers over the last 14 days.
NRFI Bet of the Day
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres Under 0.5 1st Inning Runs (-125, DraftKings)
Michael King takes the mound for the San Diego Padres, boasting an impressive 16-2 record on No Run First Inning (NRFI) bets this season, including a flawless 8-0 record at home. His upcoming opponents, the Mariners, have struggled significantly in first innings, failing to score in 75% of their starts this season and in 9 out of their last 10 games overall. King maintains a solid 3.51 ERA this season and excels in limiting early runs, ranking in the 96th percentile for average exit velocity and the 89th percentile for hard-hit percentage. Additionally, he stands in the 80th percentile for strikeout rate (K%), which bodes well against Seattle, who have the highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers in the league. Furthermore, the Mariners rank 28th in both wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) and OBP (On-Base Percentage).
Meanwhile, Bryce Miller takes the mound for the Seattle Mariners, also boasting an impressive 15-3 record on NRFI bets this season. He faces the Padres, a team that has been scoreless in 76% of their first innings at home and in 8 out of their last 10 games overall. Miller maintains a stellar 1.08 WHIP this season, ranking 18th best in MLB. The Padres, however, have struggled with plate discipline against right-handed pitchers over the last two weeks and the past month, ranking last in BB% (Walk Percentage). Despite this, Miller has shown above-average strikeout ability, ranking 63rd in strikeout rate (K%) this season, which could pose a challenge for the Padres’ lineup.
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MLB Best Player Prop Bets for July 10