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Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for July 21. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
J.D. Martinez Over 1.5 Hits + RBI’s + Runs (-130, DraftKings)
J.D. Martinez has surpassed this line in 14 out of his last 20 games and has excelled against left-handed pitchers throughout 2024. His statistics against lefties this season are impressive: a .304 batting average, .965 OPS, .419 wOBA, and 178 wRC+. Since June 1st against left-handers, he maintains a .256 batting average, .882 OPS, .392 wOBA, and 160 wRC+.
Facing Trevor Rogers, Martinez has performed well in their previous encounters, securing two hits, both doubles, in just five plate appearances. His expected statistics against Rogers include a .561 expected batting average (xBA) and a 1.050 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), with a .550 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). Rogers’ pitch mix plays favorably for Martinez, except for the slider where Rogers is average.
Rogers’ overall performance metrics this season are less impressive, with a .270 expected batting average against (xBA) and a 4.88 expected earned run average (xERA), both ranking in the bottom 20th percentile. Against right-handed hitters, Rogers’ xBA is .279 compared to .240 against left-handed hitters, further bolstering Martinez’s prospects.
Batting third in the lineup, Martinez benefits from hitters like Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso performing well against left-handed pitchers, both boasting wRC+ scores above 189 in the last 30 days. This setup increases Martinez’s opportunities to contribute with runners on base.
Jake Irvin Over 17.5 Pitching Outs Recorded (-120, DraftKings)
Jake Irvin finds himself in a favorable position for today’s game. He has surpassed this statistical line in 9 out of his last 11 outings, including 3 of his last 4 at home. His opponent, the Cincinnati Reds, have notably struggled on the road and have shown weakness against right-handed pitchers, ranking 25th in wRC+ and 27th in OBP this season.
Additionally, the Reds have the 22nd lowest walk rate against righties over the past month. Irvin himself ranks in the 76th percentile for walk rate this year, boasting a commendable 2.20 walks per 9 innings at home. Considering the Washington Nationals bullpen was heavily utilized for 7 innings just on Saturday, they may look to lean on Irvin to pitch deep into the game, possibly targeting 6 innings of work. He has been averaging 95.8 pitches per start over his last 9 outings, slightly higher at 97.0 pitches per start when pitching at home.
It’s worth noting that Cincinnati tends to swing early in the count, ranking 9th highest in First Pitch Swinging% this season, which could benefit Irvin by inducing quick outs and maintaining a manageable pitch count.
NRFI Lock of the Day
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros Under 0.5 1st Inning Runs (-130, DraftKings)
Bryan Woo is taking the mound for the Seattle Mariners, boasting an impressive 7-2 record on No Run First Innings (NRFI) bets this season, including a perfect 3-0 record at home. He will be facing the Houston Astros, a team that has been held scoreless in 76% of their first innings on the road. Woo’s pitching metrics are stellar, placing him in the 97th percentile for expected earned run average (xERA), while he excels in control with rankings in the 99th percentile for walk percentage (BB%) and barrel percentage. His overall WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched) stands at a superb 0.89 for the year. Notably, the Astros’ offensive performance tends to decline significantly when playing away games.
On the other side, Ronel Blanco takes the mound for the Astros, where he has compiled an 11-7 record on NRFI bets this season. Blanco will be up against the Mariners, who have been shut out in 80% of their first innings at home this season. Blanco’s pitching prowess is evident with a standout 2.56 ERA, which ranks 6th in MLB, and a stellar 0.97 WHIP, placing him 7th in the league. He also boasts strong metrics in expected batting average (xBA), where he ranks in the 83rd percentile at .214. Seattle has struggled offensively at home, ranking second lowest in runs scored at their home ballpark so far this season.
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MLB Best Player Prop Bets for July 21