MLB Best Player Prop Bets for July 9

Getty Brayan Bello pitching for the Red Sox against the Orioles in 2023

Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.

Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for July 9.  All statistical research is from FanGraphs.

MLB Player Prop Bets

Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-125, DraftKings)

Heliot Ramos has succeeded this line in 12 out of 19 games this season, with most misses against top-tier pitchers—Yusei Kikuchi does not fit that category.

Ramos currently boasts the highest WRC+ against lefties this season and averages 0.64 Hits+Runs+RBIs per plate appearance. With three plate appearances projected against the starter, he’s anticipated to reach 1.9 Hits+Runs+RBIs, without factoring in additional opportunities against lesser relievers.

His statistics against left-handed fastballs are particularly impressive: a .474 batting average (5th highest), .600 on-base percentage (3rd highest), and .947 slugging percentage (6th highest). At home, Ramos maintains a .412 batting average against lefties and leads MLB with a 1.323 OPS.

Furthermore, Kikuchi’s pitching metrics against right-handed hitters are concerning, including a .278 batting average allowed and a 1.36 WHIP. On the road, these numbers worsen to a .305 batting average against and a 1.61 WHIP.

Considering the San Francisco Giants proficiency against left-handed pitching as a team, Ramos is likely to benefit from opportunities with runners on base, boosting his chances to exceed 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs in this matchup.

Brayan Bello Over 1.5 Walks (-140, DraftKings)

In 7 out of his last 8 starts, Brayan Bello has drawn 2 or more walks, the exception being against Miami, a team known for its low walk rate. Bello’s tendency to throw pitches outside the strike zone is notable, ranking in the 15th percentile for zone rate among pitchers with over 50 innings pitched.

Despite the Oakland Athletics propensity for strikeouts, they exhibit discipline by not chasing pitches outside the zone, boasting a chase rate of just 26.3% over the last two weeks, which is the 5th lowest in MLB.

Oakland’s lineup presents numerous threats, with six hitters sporting walk rates above 9% against right-handed pitchers this season. This setup enhances Bello’s prospects of surpassing 1.5 walks in this matchup.

Lock of the Day

Trevor Rogers Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-120, DraftKings)

Trevor Rogers has exceeded this threshold in 10 of his 17 starts this season, notably achieving it in 5 of 7 road appearances. Facing the Houston Astros, who rank 7th highest in batting average against left-handed pitchers this year, Rogers faces a team known for their aggressive hitting style. Houston leads the league in fewest pitches per plate appearance and tends to put a lot of balls in play while avoiding strikeouts and walks.

Statistically, Rogers has struggled this season, ranking poorly in Expected Batting Average (12th percentile) and hard-hit percentage (9th percentile). As Houston’s offense has been performing well recently, this matchup appears favorable for them to capitalize against Rogers. The betting line also reflects expectations, with Rogers’ walks over/under set at 1.5 (-140), indicating a forecast for ample opportunities for Houston’s hitters tonight.

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