MLB Best Player Prop Bets for June 26

Ryne Nelson faces a challenge against the Minnesota Twins in his upcoming start for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Despite his potential, Nelson has fallen short of expectations in multiple outings this season, failing to meet his pitching outs line in 8 out of 13 games overall and in 3 out of 6 home games. His performance at home has been particularly shaky, boasting a concerning 5.74 ERA and allowing hitters a .326 on-base average across 31.3 innings pitched.

In terms of workload, Nelson has been averaging 85.88 pitches per game over his last 8 starts, with a pitches per plate appearance (P/PA) ratio of 3.761 for the season. His upcoming opponents, the Twins, maintain a slightly higher P/PA at 3.84, suggesting potential extended at-bats that could tax his pitch count.

Moreover, the Twins pose a formidable threat, especially against right-handed pitchers like Nelson. They rank 3rd in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) and 4th in on-base percentage (OBP) against right-handers. Nelson’s struggles against right-handed batters are evident, as they have posted a daunting .362 batting average and a robust .973 OPS against him this season.

Looking at recent bullpen usage, Brandon Pfaadt’s solid 6.1 innings in the series opener combined with Monday’s off day should leave the Diamondbacks’ bullpen well-rested and ready to step in if Nelson encounters difficulties.

Lock of the Day

Gavin Stone Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-140, DraftKings)

Gavin Stone presents a strong case for betting the under on his hits allowed line, particularly given his impressive track record this season. He has fallen below the 5.5 hits allowed mark in 10 out of 14 starts, including in 4 of his last 5 outings, with an average of just 4.9 hits surrendered per start.

Stone has shown exceptional form on the road this year, keeping hits allowed under 5.5 in 5 out of 6 away games. His lone deviation came against the New York Yankees, yet overall, he has limited opponents to a .219 batting average and allows only 7.41 hits per 9 innings when pitching away from home.

Facing the Chicago White Sox further bolsters Stone’s prospects. The White Sox rank last in the league in several key offensive metrics against right-handed pitchers, including wRC+ (74.9), batting average (.217), and BABIP (.265). Recent trends also favor pitchers, with 15 out of the last 23 right-handers and 4 out of the last 6 starters staying under the hits allowed line versus Chicago. Additionally, the White Sox have the third-lowest infield hit percentage against right-handers in MLB.

Stone’s advanced metrics support his reliability, with rankings in the 87th percentile for hard-hit rate and the 80th percentile for barrel rate this season.

While there’s considerable expectation for Stone to pitch deep into the game, evidenced by heavy betting on him to exceed 17.5 outs and complete at least 6 innings, this doesn’t deter confidence in the hits allowed under. When Stone has pitched 6 or more innings, he has kept hits below 5.5 in 6 out of 8 games overall and all 3 road outings.

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