Getty Cincinnati Reds' Elly De La Cruz celebrates a hit
The MLB schedule has all 30 teams playing on April 15 in honor of Jackie Robinson Day.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today’s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for April 15. All data is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 Hits (-160, FanDuel)
Elly De La Cruz and the Cincinnati Reds are slated to take on the Seattle Mariners, with George Kirby set to pitch for the Mariners.
Cruz has shown remarkable consistency throughout the 2024 season, boasting an impressive 80% hit rate on this particular proposition and averaging 1.1 hits per game.
Cruz has particularly excelled against right-handed pitchers, as evidenced by his performance in the last 20 games, in which he exceeded this hit proposition in 13 out of 20 games, compared to only 6 out of his last 20 games against left-handed pitchers.
In his career, Cruz has demonstrated a clear preference for right-handed pitchers, batting .257 against them compared to .184 against lefties, underlining his prowess against them.
Meanwhile, Kirby’s performance this season has been less than stellar. He has been conceding an alarming average of 6.1 hits per game, with his recent outings indicating a concerning trend. In his last two games, Kirby has allowed 8 and 10 hits respectively in just 3 and 4 innings pitched, and he has surrendered over 5 hits in 9 of his last 11 starts.
Given Cruz’s consistent ability to make contact against pitchers coupled with Kirby’s tendency to give up hits, the over seems highly favorable. According to our model, Cruz has a 59% chance of recording a hit in this matchup.
Ty France Over 0.5 Singles (-120, FanDuel)
Picking again from the Mariners and Reds game, Ty France is a player that stands out, boasting a strong track record against Frankie Montas.
In their previous encounters, France has excelled against Montas, hitting .462 with 6 hits (including 4 singles and 2 doubles) in 13 at-bats. His on-base percentage sits at .500, with a slugging percentage of .615. This history suggests that France has consistently outperformed Montas whenever they’ve faced off.
Despite the Mariners leading the league in strikeouts, particularly against right-handed pitchers like Montas, there’s a good chance France could capitalize early in the game. Positioned near the cleanup spot, France could take advantage of Montas’ struggles in that area this season. Ty France has a 55% chance to record a single tonight.
Lock of the Day
Tyler Glasnow Under 9.5 Strikeouts (-190, DraftKings)
While Glasnow is undoubtedly a formidable pitcher, the strikeout line seems excessively high for me to consider taking the over, regardless of the circumstances or the opponent. In baseball, numerous variables come into play that could prevent a pitcher from reaching such a high number of strikeouts.
The new Los Angeles Dodgers ace has fallen short of this strikeout prop in 24 out of 28 games since 2022. Throughout his career, he has only surpassed this line once against the Washington Nationals, averaging 4.5 strikeouts per game in 6 starts. This season, he’s averaging 7.2 strikeouts per game in 4 starts. It’s difficult for me to envision Glasnow consistently meeting this lofty strikeout target in consecutive starts.
According to our model, Glasnow is projected to record 7.7 strikeouts tonight, but given his historical performance relative to this proposition, I remain skeptical about his ability to achieve it.
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