MLB Best Player Prop Bets for May 19

Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.

Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for May 19. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.

MLB Player Prop Bets

Matthew Liberatore Over 9.5 Outs Recorded (+115, DraftKings)

Matthew Liberatore has been consistently surpassing this mark in his recent outings, throwing 50 and 60 pitches in his last two games. With Kyle Leahy providing bullpen support, Liberatore is expected to pitch around 70-75 pitches against the Boston Red Sox. Despite a respectable season with a 4.56 ERA and 4.06 FIP, Liberatore has improved his strike rate to 55.2%, up 6% from previous seasons.

Facing a Red Sox offense that’s been average against left-handed pitchers, Liberatore should have the opportunity to exceed this threshold, especially considering the Red Sox’s aggressive approach at the plate lately.

Alex Manoah Under 15.5 Outs Recorded (-105, DraftKings)

Alek Manoah’s under 15.5 outs is worth considering after his dominant performance against the Minnesota Twins. He’s been under in 1 out of 2 games this season and in his last 2 games against the Tampa Bay Rays. Over the last 30 games, he’s been under in 23 of them.

Despite his recent outing, his expected batting average is .258 and expected ERA is 4.75, indicating room for regression. Manoah has struggled with command, evident in his 14.2% walk rate last season. Tampa Bay’s offense against right-handed pitchers in May has been slightly above average but with a high walk rate, which could lead to a high pitch count for Manoah early in the game.

Corbin Burnes Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-135, DraftKings)

I am banking on Corbin Burnes logging at least six innings on the mound. Historically, he’s shown strong endurance, pitching six or more innings in 67% of his starts and never falling short of 5 2/3 innings except once. As the ace pitcher, he’s relied upon to be the workhorse, especially considering their bullpen’s recent workload. With another series looming right after this one, Burnes needs to shoulder the innings burden.

Facing a Seattle Mariners team that struggles against right-handed pitchers, particularly in terms of strikeouts where they rank first in K%, Burnes should find opportunities to exploit their weaknesses. Moreover, previous encounters with Burnes have left many Seattle hitters struggling, with notable players like Jorge Polanco, Josh Rojas, and Mitch Haniger having poor records against him. These factors collectively suggest a strong chance for Burnes to deliver a solid outing.

Lock of the Day

Carlos Rodon To Record A Win (+125, DraftKings)

Despite the New York Yankees being heavy favorites with -310 ML odds, Rodon’s line stands out, especially considering his strong performance when pitching six innings, resulting in wins in 4 out of 5 starts this year. Facing the Chicago White Sox, who rank in the bottom three in OPS and wRC+ against left-handed pitchers over the last 30 games, Rodon has a promising matchup.

Meanwhile, the Yankees, boasting impressive offensive stats at home, are up against Chris Flexen, who holds a 4.46 ERA and a 4.30 xERA. This sets the stage for the Yankees to potentially score runs and support Rodon’s bid for a win.

For more sports betting advice and analysis sign up for our newsletter.

0 Comments