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Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for May 24. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Jose Urena Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-125, DraftKings)
The Texas Rangers bullpen is facing a decent workload lately, with four out of six arms having thrown 27 or more pitches over the last three days, while the remaining two were heavily used yesterday. Considering this, it’s likely that Jose Urena will have a solid opportunity to pitch effectively given his efficiency, particularly evident in his ground ball rate, which ranks in the 84th percentile.
In his first three starts this year, Urena has consistently been given a leash of 90 or more pitches, largely because he’s managed to limit damage well, although this trend might not continue. Nonetheless, facing a struggling Minnesota Twins offense against right-handed pitchers, with metrics like a 88 wRC+ (23rd), 7.2% BB rate (23rd), .215 Avg (26th), .279 OBP (28th), and .657 OPS (24th) since the beginning of May, Urena could be in a favorable position.
Expecting a leash of around 80 pitches, he could potentially extend to 100 if he avoids significant trouble. Historically, when he reaches the 80-pitch mark, he’s finished over in 79% of games dating back to 2022.
Christian Scott Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (-115, DraftKings)
Christian Scott’s outs line is set at 16.5 today, indicating an expectation of at least 5 innings from him. However, this line seems underestimated considering his recent performances. In all three of his starts this season, he’s surrendered 5 or more hits, with his most recent outing resulting in 7 hits conceded. With an xBA of .238, he currently ranks in the 58th percentile.
Today, he’s up against the San Francisco Giants, who have been solid at the plate of late. Five batters in their projected lineup boast batting averages above .250 against right-handed pitchers.
The Giants’ team statistics further highlight their offensive prowess, with a .252 batting average, .325 OBP, and .304 BABIP, all ranking in the top 10 in their respective categories. Notably, in the last 10 outings, nine pitchers have allowed 5 or more hits to the Giants, including the recent example of Paul Skenes, who surrendered 6 hits to them.
Same Game Parlay of the Day
Seth Lugo Under 5.5 Hits Allowed and Over 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+182, DraftKings)
Seth Lugo has showcased impressive performance thus far this season with a stellar 1.79 ERA, a low 0.83 HR/9 rate, a solid 17.6% K-BB ratio, and a commendable 0.98 WHIP. Now, he’s set to take his skills on the road against a Tampa Bay Rays lineup that consistently starts five left-handed batters.
Notably, Lugo has excelled away from home, boasting a .172 wOBA, a 26.9% K-BB ratio, a 0.66 WHIP, and a 2.84 xFIP on the road, compared to less impressive numbers at home. His proficiency is particularly evident against left-handed hitters, where he maintains a .199 wOBA, a 30% K-BB ratio, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 2.17 xFIP.
In his last eight out of eleven road starts, Lugo has surpassed 5.5 strikeouts, averaging 6.8, while also staying under 5.5 hits allowed in ten out of his last fifteen road starts, averaging 4.8.
This season, Lugo holds a 3-1 record in surpassing the 5.5 strikeouts line with an average of 8.3 strikeouts per game on the road, and a 4-0 record in staying under 5.5 hits allowed, averaging 3.5 hits per game. Notably, the Rays have typically allowed opposing right-handed pitchers to surpass 5.5 strikeouts, with an average of 5.7, and under 5.5 hits allowed, with an average of 4.2. Similarly, visiting right-handed pitchers in Tampa have consistently stayed under 5.5 hits allowed, with an average of 4.
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