Getty Dylan Cease
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layer props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-driven dfsPro model has highlighted several individual performances to watch out for during the games scheduled for May 3. Let’s dive into some of the top MLB player prop bets we’re favoring based on our statistical analysis sourced from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
George Kirby Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-150, DraftKings)
George Kirby boasts an impressive ability to consistently throw strikes, ranking in the 96th percentile for walk percentage this season, and he was even in the 99th percentile last season. Despite an ERA of 4.18 to start the season, his underlying metrics suggest he’s due for positive regression, with the 3rd-best Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) among starting pitchers at 2.12 and an expected ERA (XERA) of 2.99.
This matchup against the Houston Astros appears favorable. They rank 27th in walk percentage and slightly above league average in OPS and Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers over the last 14 games. However, they’re currently seeing the 2nd-lowest pitches per plate appearance (PPA) in the MLB and have the 2nd-lowest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching.
So, we have a pitcher known for pounding the zone against a team that doesn’t often strike out and tends to put the ball in play early and frequently. The only scenario where I don’t envision Kirby reaching 6 innings in this matchup is if he surrenders a significant number of runs and gets pulled earlier than anticipated. Nevertheless, considering his impressive metrics, I’m comfortable with this play even if such an outcome occurs.
Dylan Cease Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-140, DraftKings)
I’m drawn to a favorable bounce-back opportunity, particularly for a pitcher like Dylan Cease. In his last outing, he faced a tough Philadelphia Phillies lineup, currently ranking 1st in OPS and 3rd in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers over the last 14 games.
However, this upcoming matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks presents a different scenario. They rank in the bottom five in both OPS and wRC+ against right-handed pitchers over the last 14 games and are second worst in both categories over the last 30 games.
Despite his recent struggles, Cease has stayed below this line in 5 out of 6 starts this season, boasting a solid 3.4 Expected Earned Run Average (XERA) and a 2.86 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP).
It’s worth noting that Cease has typically faced lines set at 1.5 ERA heavily favoring the over or 2.5 ERA heavily favoring the under in most games this season. This line, hovering near even odds at 2.5, appears to be an overreaction to his last start, especially considering the favorable matchup against the Diamondbacks.
Lock of the Day
Tanner Houck Over 16.5 Outs (-130, DraftKings)
This looks like one of the most promising plays available. Tanner Houck has consistently exceeded this mark in 5 out of his last 6 games this season, with the lone miss coming by a slim margin. His performance has been outstanding, boasting a 1.60 ERA and 0.92 WHIP while consistently throwing over 90 pitches in his last five outings.
Although the Minnesota Twins have been hitting well lately, it’s worth noting that Houck has remained solid throughout the year. Despite the Twins having the 6th lowest Batting Average Against (BAA) against right-handed pitchers, Houck has been reliable. Furthermore, considering the Boston Red Sox utilized a bullpen game recently, it’s likely they’ll rely on Houck to log some innings and maintain his efficiency, a trait he’s demonstrated all season. His average of just 3.6 pitches per plate appearance ranks among the lowest in the MLB.
Houck’s ability to limit walks and induce ground balls is another factor in his favor. Given the importance of quick innings, Houck appears poised to deliver a strong performance and help secure this bet.
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