Getty Baltimore Orioles team manager Brandon Hyde during an April 2 game against the Kansas City Royals.
Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for May 5. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Prop Bets
James Paxton Under 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-145, DraftKings)
James Paxton has fallen short of this line in 4 out of his last 5 starts, managing only 15 strikeouts in 26 innings pitched this season. The Atlanta Braves boast a potent lineup, ranking among the top 3 in OPS and WRC+ against left-handed pitchers over the last 30 games.
With Paxton’s struggles reflected in his low K% and Chase%, coupled with the Braves’ ability to limit strikeouts against southpaws, it’s unlikely he’ll surpass 4.5 strikeouts, especially with the Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen well-rested.
Freddy Peralta Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-145, DraftKings)
Freddy Peralta is set to take on a Chicago Cubs squad missing key hitters and struggling against right-handed pitchers lately, ranking poorly in walk rate, OPS, and WRC+ over the last 14 games. With the Milwaukee Brewers bullpen taxed from recent outings, they’re banking on Peralta to go deep into the game, especially with no off day tomorrow.
Despite the Cubs decent plate appearances per at-bat, their high strikeout rate plays into Peralta’s strengths. Sporting solid metrics like a 3.23 FIP and a 3.66 xERA, he’s even favored to keep his ERA under 1.5. Peralta has exceeded this line in 4 out of 5 starts this season, particularly shining against teams with low walk rates.
Dean Kremer Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-110, DraftKings)
Dean Kremer has consistently surpassed this mark in 5 out of 6 starts to begin the season, often reaching pitch counts in the range of 90 to 100 pitches over his last three outings. Meanwhile, the Cincinatti Reds have been struggling in nearly every offensive metric against right-handed pitchers (RHP) over the past 30 days. Their batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS all rank near the bottom of the league, with similarly poor numbers at their home ballpark. Additionally, they rank 18th in walks and dead last in groundball-to-flyball ratio, indicating a propensity for quicker outs and ample double-play opportunities for opposing pitchers.
Kremer himself ranks 47th among qualifying pitchers in Pitches per Plate Appearance, averaging 3.9 pitches per plate appearance. Moreover, when Kremer has thrown 90 or more pitches, he has surpassed this outs line in 73% of games over the last two seasons. In the last 12 games started by right-handed pitchers against Cincinnati, 10 of those pitchers have covered this outs line.
Lock of the Day
Hunter Brown Over 3.5 Hits Allowed (-145, DraftKings)
Since 2023, Hunter Brown has consistently exceeded this line in 30 out of 35 games, marking an 85.7% success rate. In the current season, he has surpassed it in all 6 out of 6 games played. Notably, since 2023, he has only fallen short of this mark once when playing at home, and that was against the Oakland Athletics. His performance in 2024 has been lackluster, sporting a high 9.78 ERA and a .366 batting average against him (BAA). Despite slightly more favorable expected statistics, with a 5.07 expected ERA (xERA) and a .297 expected BAA (xBAA), he remains among the league’s weakest pitchers. Considering these factors, it’s surprising to see his line set this low.
As for the Seattle Mariners offensive prowess, they hold a .219 batting average against right-handed pitchers (RHP) this season, with a 95 wRC+ indicating slightly below-average performance. Over their last four games, they managed hit totals of 9, 5, 6, and 6 respectively against opposing starting pitchers.
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