Getty Paul Skenes turned in another strong start for the Pirates.
Strikeout prop bets rank among the most sought-after betting lines in baseball. These wagers involve predicting whether a starting pitcher will surpass or fall short of a specified number of strikeouts during a game.
Below are a few strikeout prop bets our AI-driven dfsPro model likes for the games scheduled for June 29.
MLB Strikeout Prop Bets
Max Fried Over 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-110, DraftKings)
Max Fried is positioned favorably to surpass his strikeouts line against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He has exceeded this mark in 7 out of 15 starts this season. In one instance where he fell short, he pitched only 43 pitches. Despite a recent solid performance against the New York Yankees, a team not prone to striking out against left-handed pitchers (ranked 14th), Fried managed 4 strikeouts.
The upcoming matchup against the Pirates presents a promising scenario. They rank 4th in MLB for strikeouts against left-handed pitchers. Key players like Andrew McCutchen, Bryan Reynolds, and Nick Gonzales have notable strikeout rates against lefties. O’Neil Cruz also holds a high 37% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers.
Fried has historically dominated the Pirates with a 30% strikeout rate in 77 at-bats. His curveball boasts a 36.4% whiff rate, suggesting he can exploit the Pirates’ lineup effectively.
Paul Skenes Over 7.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+110, DraftKings)
So far this season, Paul Skenes has surpassed his strikeout line in 5 out of 8 starts, including 4 of his last 5 outings. Notably, he debuted against the Chicago Cubs with 7 strikeouts despite throwing just 84 pitches, and in subsequent starts, he consistently pitched over 93 pitches per game.
Facing the Atlanta Braves, who rank 10th in MLB for strikeouts per game and boast an 11th highest team strikeout percentage at 23.4% against right-handed pitchers, Skenes has a clear advantage. The Braves have not faced Skenes before, which gives him an edge as they adjust to his arsenal that includes pitches consistently over 100 MPH and effective off-speed offerings.
The Braves’ expected lineup features hitters like Jared Kelenic, Adam Duvall, and Matt Olson, each with strikeout rates ranging from 27% to 36.9%. These high strikeout rates provide ample opportunities for Skenes to rack up strikeouts throughout the game.
Moreover, Skenes excels in advanced strikeout metrics, boasting a whiff rate in the 85th percentile, chase rate in the 78th percentile, and an elite strikeout rate in the 95th percentile this season.
Overall, Skenes has consistently hovered around 8 strikeouts per game this season, particularly against teams prone to strikeouts.
Lock of the Day
Tyler Glasnow Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-110, DraftKings)
Tyler Glasnow has been consistently surpassing this mark throughout the season, achieving it in 11 out of 16 games so far. Recently, Glasnow has been particularly impressive, exceeding the 7.5 strikeouts line in 10 of his last 11 starts and in all of his last 6 road games.
Known for his outstanding metrics, Glasnow boasts a 35.2% strikeout rate and a 30.9% whiff rate, indicating his ability to generate swings and misses effectively. His performance on the road has been stellar with a 13.30 K/9 and a 39.4% strikeout rate against right-handed batters, showcasing his dominance away from home.
Tonight’s matchup against the San Francisco Giants sets up favorably for Glasnow. The Giants are expected to field a lineup predominantly consisting of right-handed hitters, against whom Glasnow performs even better. He holds a 12.41 K/9 and a 36.6% strikeout rate specifically against right-handed batters, which are notably higher than his numbers against left-handed hitters.
Although Glasnow is considered matchup-proof due to his elite skills, the Giants have shown vulnerability to strikeouts recently. Over the last 15 days, they rank 9th in strikeout percentage against right-handed pitchers and have allowed several pitchers to accumulate significant strikeout totals.
For more sports betting advice and analysis sign up for our newsletter.