Getty Hector Neris was one of the best relief pitchers in MLB in the 2023 season
Strikeout prop bets rank among the most sought-after betting lines in baseball. These wagers involve predicting whether a starting pitcher will surpass or fall short of a specified number of strikeouts during a game.
Below are a few strikeout prop bets our AI-driven dfsPro model likes for the games scheduled for May 14. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Strikeout Prop Bets
Ronel Blanco Under 6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-145, DraftKings)
Ronel Blanco has fallen short of this line in 5 out of 7 starts this season. Going back to last season, he’s come up short in 11 out of 14 games. The only times he surpassed were against the Seattle Mariners and Colorado Rockies, both top 5 in strikeout rate (K%), and during a 9-inning no-hitter against the Toronto Blue Jays with 7 strikeouts.
Today, he faces the Oakland Athletics at home. While they do strike out more than ideal, they’ve notably reduced their strikeouts over the past two weeks, with only a 21.7% strikeout rate, ranking 10th lowest during that period.
Despite expectations, the Athletics’ have performed well offensively against right-handed pitchers in the last 30 days, boasting the 6th highest wRC+ in MLB against them. This suggests they could pose a challenge for Blanco, potentially limiting his chances of reaching 7 strikeouts.
Hunter Greene Over 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-140, DraftKings)
While it’s true that the Arizona Diamondbacks might not be the most favorable lineup for high strikeouts, Hunter Greene’s prowess makes this proposition enticing.
Consider Greene’s track record: he’s surpassed this line in 7 out of 8 starts this season, including both of his away games and two out of three matchups against Arizona last season.
The Diamondbacks lineup, while not particularly strikeout-prone recently, features several right-handed batters who could struggle against Greene’s slider. Additionally, Greene boasts an impressive 32.5% strikeout rate against left-handed batters, further bolstering his chances.
The urgency for Greene to provide depth is evident, given the recent strain on the Cincinnati Reds bullpen. With seven different relievers used over the past two nights, including six in yesterday’s game alone, there’s a clear need for Greene to deliver a solid outing.
Lock of the Day
Joe Ross Under 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-155, DraftKings)
Targeting the under on Joe Ross’s strikeout prop seems like a smart move, given his recent performance. He’s fallen short in 6 out of 7 starts this season and in 5 out of his last 5, averaging just 3.8 strikeouts during this stretch. His current K/9 sits at 7.25, indicating he’s not generating strikeouts at a high rate. Additionally, his metrics don’t paint a picture of dominance, ranking in the 18th percentile for K%, 28th for K/9, and only the 60th percentile for chase%.
Although the Pittsburgh Pirates appears to be a team prone to strikeouts, they’ve been bucking that trend lately. Over their last 3 games, they’ve averaged just 8.33 strikeouts per game. Looking back at the last 15 games, only three starting right-handed pitchers have surpassed the 5.5 strikeout line against Pittsburgh. Ross faced the Pirates on April 22 and managed only 4 strikeouts in 5.1 innings.
Considering Ross typically throws around 82 pitches per game and with the bullpen not overworked, it’s unlikely he’ll have the opportunity to rack up the strikeouts needed to reach 6. Some books are even favoring the under on his outs line of 15.5, further indicating a potential lack of volume for strikeouts.
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