Getty San Francisco Giants starter Blake Snell has been predicted as a trade chip should the team embrace a fire sale at the deadline
Strikeout prop bets rank among the most sought-after betting lines in baseball. These wagers involve predicting whether a starting pitcher will surpass or fall short of a specified number of strikeouts during a game.
Below are a few strikeout prop bets our AI-driven dfsPro model likes for the games scheduled for May 27.
MLB Strikeout Prop Bets
Tyler Megill Over 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-105, DraftKings)
Tylor Megill’s performance has caught my attention, especially after his strong rehab starts with an impressive 14.2 K/9 rate. His recent outing, where he secured 7 strikeouts with a 30% whiff rate, further showcased his potential. Despite the Los Angeles Dodgers ranking 16th in strikeout percentage against right-handed pitchers, they drop to 23rd during day games. Notably, in their lineup, four hitters have a strikeout percentage above 34%, with five above 28% against right-handed pitchers in day games.
Megill’s recent workload, with 86 pitches in his first start back from the IL and six days of rest leading into this game, bodes well for his strikeout potential. Additionally, in his last six out of seven home starts with 85 or more pitches, Megill has exceeded the 4.5 strikeouts line, averaging 5.7 strikeouts. At these odds, I’m inclined to believe Megill will impress once again in the strikeouts department, especially against a Dodgers lineup that appears more susceptible to strikeouts during day games.
Blake Snell Over 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-185, DraftKings)
After throwing 87 pitches in his last start, Blake Snell is poised to easily surpass the 90-pitch mark this outing. Considering his recent workload, the current line seems too conservative. Snell ranks in the 91st percentile for whiff percentage, yet his strikeout rate sits at only 48%, indicating significant room for improvement. Last season, he exceeded this line in 25 out of 32 starts, ranking second among starting pitchers for both whiff percentage and strikeout rate, trailing only Spencer Strider. The Philadelphia Phillies with their top 10 strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers over the last 30 games, offer a favorable matchup.
The projected lineup’s strikeout rates against left-handed pitchers are as follows: Schwarber (33.0%), Realmuto (26.1%), Harper (23.9%), Bohm (14.7%), Castellanos (24.8%), Stott (14.7%), Sosa (24.4%), Pache (24.2%), and Rojas (29.0%).
With 7 quality targets and 3 left-handed batters, this lineup sets the stage for Snell to excel today.
Lock of the Day
Austin Gomber Under 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-200, DraftKings)
Austin Gomber’s strikeouts line seems a bit too high given his performance history. He’s fallen below this mark in 6 out of 10 starts this season. Additionally, when facing left-handed pitchers other than Chris Sale, Reid Detmers, and Garrett Crochet, the Cleveland Guardians have tended to stay under this line, considering their lower strikeout rates.
Gomber ranks in the bottom percentiles for strikeouts per inning, chase rate, and whiff rate. The Guardians’ projected lineup features only three batters with a strikeout rate of 20.5% or higher against lefties. Moreover, Cleveland has the highest foul ball percentage in the MLB, indicating their ability to extend at-bats and increase pitch counts, while also not swinging and missing frequently. Given these factors and the hitter-friendly environment of Coors Field, where Cleveland has performed well against lefties, there’s a strong case for betting the under on Gomber’s strikeouts.
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