Getty Red Sox manager Alex Cora
Strikeout prop bets rank among the most sought-after betting lines in baseball. These wagers involve predicting whether a starting pitcher will surpass or fall short of a specified number of strikeouts during a game.
Below are a few strikeout prop bets our AI-driven dfsPro model likes for the games scheduled for May 1.
MLB Strikeout Props
Trevor Williams Under 3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-125, DraftKings)
Trevor Williams faces a tough challenge against the Texas Rangers, who boast the 3rd-lowest strikeout rate this season. Williams has only managed 8 strikeouts in 57 at bats against current Rangers batters, resulting in a meager 14.03% strikeout rate. To surpass the line, Williams would likely need to face around 28 batters.
In addition to this daunting matchup, Williams has historically struggled to reach this line in away games, achieving it in only 45% of such games since 2022, with an average of 3 strikeouts per game. This season, he has only hit this mark in 1 out of 3 games. Given these factors, it’s a solid play to bet on Williams falling short his strikeout line in this matchup.
Triston McKenzie Under 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-195, DraftKings)
Triston McKenzie, the right-handed pitcher for the Cleveland Guardians, showed promise as a rising star in 2022 but faced setbacks in 2023 due to injuries. Beginning the year on the injured list with a shoulder issue, he then spent much of the season sidelined again due to an elbow sprain. His performance on the mound last year was noticeably affected, and unfortunately, his numbers this year mirror those struggles.
In his first 5 starts of the season, McKenzie has posted a career-worst 1.68 WHIP, accompanied by a 4.91 ERA and a challenging 5.62 FIP. His skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) of 6.00 ranks as the lowest among qualified starters.
His strikeout numbers have also declined, with a strikeout rate of just 17.7% against batters faced. Facing the Houston Astros today poses a significant challenge, as they have the lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers in the league at 16.6%. McKenzie might find himself in trouble early in the game.
Despite the Astros’ overall struggles this year, their lineup remains potent, especially at the top. Their offense ranks 6th in weighted runs created plus league-wide, despite sitting 16th in actual runs per game.
Lock of the Day
Kutter Crawford Over 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-110, DraftKings)
The San Francisco Giants lineup is coming off a rough 10-strikeout performance, setting up a potential opportunity for Boston Red Sox pitcher Kutter Crawford to capitalize. Crawford ranks in the 64th percentile for strikeout rate and the 80th percentile for inducing batters to chase pitches. He’s recorded 5 or more strikeouts in 4 out of 6 appearances and has pitched into the 6th inning in his last 3 outings.
The longer Crawford stays on the mound, the greater the likelihood of accumulating more strikeouts. Despite the Giants having the 9th-highest hard-hit percentage, Crawford excels at limiting hard contact, ranking in the 95th percentile. Impressively, he hasn’t surrendered a home run this season.
Concerns about the Giants’ ability to generate extra-base hits are somewhat mitigated by their 11th-highest ground-ball percentage, which plays into one of Crawford’s weaknesses as he ranks in the bottom 28% for inducing ground balls. With San Francisco averaging only 2.2 runs per game over their last 5 outings, Crawford has a good chance of extending his streak of pitching deep into the game.
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