Getty Brandon Montour, Florida Panthers & Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers
The Edmonton Oilers will look to dig themselves out of a 2-0 series deficit against the Florida Panthers as the Stanley Cup Final shifts to Rogers Place for Game 3 on Thursday.
The Oilers lost 4-1 to the Panthers in Game 2 on Monday, and Edmonton’s offense has been held to just one goal through two games. Sportsbooks indicate that the Oilers will benefit from home ice advantage in Thursday’s contest and pick up their first win of the series, but our AI-powered dfsPro model suggests that picking the Panthers to win their third in a row might not be such a long shot after all.
Our model also projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during Thursday’s matchup. Let’s dive into some of our favorite game lines and player props for Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final!
Hottest Game Lines: Panthers Moneyline & Total
The DraftKings moneyline indicates that the Oilers are very slight favorites at -135. The Panthers are also a big favorite to cover the +1.5, while Edmonton is the underdog to cover -1.5.
Sportsbooks are generally in agreement with DraftKings that the Oilers are favored to win Game 3 at home, but our model gives the slight edge to Florida. Based on data from the model, taking the Panthers moneyline at +114 and the over at +102 has the potential to be a highly profitable bet (odds from DraftKings).
Hottest Player Props: Total Points
Mattias Ekholm: Over 0.5 Points (+165, DraftKings)
Oilers defenseman Mattias Ekholm scored Edmonton’s lone goal in Game 2 against the Panthers, snapping a three-game scoring drought. Our model likes him to find the scoresheet again in Game 3, projecting an 8% increase over his average scoring potential in tonight’s contest.
Brandon Montour: Over 0.5 Points (+165, DraftKings)
Our model also likes Panthers defenseman Brandon Montour to provide some secondary scoring from the opposing blue line. He has just one point so far in the Stanley Cup Final series – an assist in Game 1 – but the model projects a slight increase (3%) over his average of 0.5 points per game tonight in Game 3.
Hottest Player Props: Anytime Goalscorers
Leon Draisaitl: Anytime Goalscorer (+135, DraftKings)
Once again, our model suggests that the Oilers’ most likely goalscorer in Game 3 is forward Leon Draisaitl. He hasn’t found the back of the net in any of the past four games, but he is second on the team with 10 goals in the postseason. Our model has set Draisaitl’s goalscoring probability at 46% in tonight’s contest, projecting a 19% uptick over his average goals per game.
Connor McDavid: Anytime Goalscorer (+130, DraftKings)
Oilers superstar Connor McDavid has yet to score a goal in this series against the Panthers, but our model gives him the second-highest probability of scoring a goal for his team in Game 3 at 43%. The model has McDavid finishing over the betting line in tonight’s contest at 0.56, a 34% increase over his average of 0.42 goals per game.
Aleksander Barkov: Anytime Goalscorer (+225, DraftKings)
According to our model, Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov has the highest probability of any player on his team to find the back of the net in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final. He is tied for third among Panthers skaters with six goals so far in the playoffs, and our model projects a 77% uptick in his goalscoring potential in Thursday’s contest to match Draisaitl’s goalscoring odds at 46%.