Getty Collin Morikawa
Golfers have one final opportunity to build confidence and momentum before The Masters next week with the upcoming Valero Texas Open. A notable lineup of PGA stars, including Rory McIlroy, Colin Morikawa, Max Homa, and Matt Fitzpatrick, among others, will be competing. I’ve identified several bets our AI-powered projection model is keen on, ranging from predictions on who will make the cut, finishing positions, and outright winners. All data is from Betsperts Golf customizable database “The Rabbit Hole”.
Course Information and Important Metrics
The Oak Course at TPC Antonio, designed by Greg Norman, offers a par 72 layout stretching across 7438 yards. Despite its predominantly flat terrain and tree-lined fairways, ample space is available on many holes. However, the course presents challenges with its doglegging fairways flanked by bunkers and thick rough, contributing to its ranking as the 4th-lowest in driving accuracy percentage on tour.
Elevated and narrow greens, often positioned at challenging angles to the fairway and fortified by numerous bunkers, demand precision in approach shots. With a Sand Save rate of only 45.9%, the course is known for its punitive bunkering around the greens, contributing to its status as one of the top 10 toughest for gaining strokes on approach shots. Despite the challenges, the greens generally maintain a slower pace, except for specific slopes.
Although the driving accuracy stands at 54%, it’s essential to note that the Birdie or Better rate from the rough (21.3%) exceeds that from the fairway (19.9%), highlighting the importance of considering golfers who excel in the Distance from Edge of Fairway metric.
Par 5s pose significant challenges, with an average scoring of 4.77 and a notably low Going for the Green percentage at 11.5%.
Valero Texas Open Betting Picks
Austin Eckroat To Make the Cut: Yes (-142, FanDuel)
This season, Austin Eckroat has achieved success with a win at the Cognizant Classic, a 36th place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and a 45th place finish at the Players Championship. His consistent iron play has been notable, and replicating those performances with his approach shots could position him well in the upcoming tournament. Eckroat’s preference for accuracy over distance aligns well with the course’s characteristics, as it doesn’t demand excessive length, with an average driving distance of 293 yards. Success on approach shots will be crucial for all participants this weekend, making Eckroat’s strengths particularly advantageous.
Colin Morikawa To Finish Top 10 (+280, FanDuel)
In the past 6 months, Colin Morikawa has secured the 2nd position in total strokes gained (+1.72). This season, he stands at 14th in Birdie or Better rate and holds the top spot in Distance from Edge of Fairway. As previously noted, Distance From Edge of Fairway holds greater predictive value as an Off the Tee metric on this particular course. Despite not ranking exceptionally high in putting this season, Morikawa’s ability to consistently hit close proximity shots compensates for any potential shortfall in his putting performance.
Rory McIlroy To Outright Win (+900, FanDuel)
While selecting Rory may seem like a cliché due to his favored odds, there are valid reasons to back him. With several PGA superstars absent from the tournament, the overall field appears relatively weak, offering Rory a favorable chance at victory. Additionally, Rory boasts a previous win at this course, further bolstering his credentials. It’s noteworthy that despite his similar pricing to win the Masters next week, which features a significantly tougher field, backing him here presents an opportune moment to capitalize on his potential.
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