Bears vs Lions: How We’re Betting in This NFC North Battle

Bears vs Lions betting odds prediction pick

Getty Khalil Mack and the Chicago Bears will take on the Detroit Lions Week 1

The Detroit Lions open the 2020 season as 2.5 point favorites over the Chicago Bears for Sunday’s Week 1 contest at Ford Field.

Chicago Bears (0-0)

The Bears have named Mitchell Trubisky their starter at quarterback, which may not strike fear into the hearts of most teams, but it should scare the Lions a bit. In his three games against Detroit in the Matt Nagy era, Trubisky is 3-0, and he has thrown for 866 yards, nine touchdowns and one interception. If Matt Patricia and company decide yet again to play man defense, Trubisky could very well feast as he has in recent years. The Bears’ primary concern on offense this week will be running back David Montgomery’s health. Chicago’s RB1 has been nursing a groin injury for the past few weeks, and while he’s on track to play, he could very well see limited action, which isn’t ideal for this Bears offense.

On defense, Chicago will likely be without their biggest free agent acquisition. Pass rusher Robert Quinn was listed as doubtful on the Bears’ injury report Friday, and after missing practice all week, it would be a huge surprise if he plays. That said, Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks and Eddie Jackson will still be there, and that should be enough to give Matt Stafford fits.

Detroit Lions (0-0)

The Lions will also likely be shorthanded Sunday. Talented wideout Kenny Golladay, who hasn’t practiced all week, was listed as doubtful on the team’s injury report Friday. Golladay had 65 catches for 1,190 yards and 11 scores last year, and the Bears are starting rookie Jaylon Johnson at corner, so this could be a big blow for the Lions. Stafford will still likely test Johnson early and often, and how well the rookie out of Utah responds will be one of the keys to this matchup. Thus, wideouts like Quintez Cephus and Danny Amendola could be crucial role-players in this game.

The Lions had the 26th ranked defense in the NFL last year, and they were particularly bad against the run. They also traded talented defensive back Darius Slay this offseason, so their secondary will be suspect here, especially with first-round corner Jeff Okudah likely a no-go for this one.

Bears vs Lions Game Details

Date: Sunday, September 13
Time: 1:00 pm ET
Location: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
Spread: Lions -2.5
Over/Under Total: 42 points

Line Movement

The line movement on this one has been interesting. The odds were even after the schedules were announced in the spring, and the Lions soon became 1-point favorites. That didn’t change much until Trubisky was named the Bears’ starter. Then, the line jumped to Lions -3. It settled at Detroit +2.5 this week.

Betting Trends

NOTE: All betting trends and numbers here are courtesy of OddsShark.

  • Chicago is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Chicago’s last 20 games.
  • The Bears are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games.
  • Chicago is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against Detroit.
  • Detroit is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.
  • The Lions are 0-9 SU in their last 9 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit’s last 9 games against Chicago.
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit’s last 7 games at home.

Analysis & Picks

The Bears have won four straight against Detroit, with their defense always playing a huge role. Chicago has held the Lions to 71 points in those four games. Stafford will get his shots in, and he’ll test Johnson at corner, but he has not been able to beat the Bears since Khalil Mack came over from the Raiders in 2018. I don’t see that changing now.

The Lions’ strength has been the passing game, but the Bears finished 11th in pass defense last season, and until the Lions outplay this particular group, the advantage goes to the Bears. I think this will be a relatively low-scoring and sloppy affair, with a few turnovers and bad tackling from both sides. I think the Bears win in an ugly game, 21-17.

PICK: Bears +2.5