Getty Bears general manager Ryan Poles.
Nearly every prominent NFL analyst anyone has ever heard of believes the Chicago Bears will select QB Caleb Williams with the top pick in the 2024 NFL draft — nearly every one of them.
Peter King, now formerly of NBC Sports, published the final Football Morning in America column of his storied career on Monday, February 26. The sprawling piece primarily covered its author’s own career and retirement. However, King also threw in a few nuggets for the lowly aggregators to devour one last time.
Among them was his prediction — and it is only and clearly that, an educated guess — that the Bears will retain quarterback Justin Fields and deal the No. 1 overall pick for a massive draft haul this April.
“I suppose the Bears are going to trade the top pick,” King wrote. “I know nothing, but that seems to be the way the wind is blowing.”
King’s Proposal Sees Bears Trade Back Twice, Accumulate Unthinkable Draft Haul
GettyChicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields.
King laid out precisely how he believes the Bears should, and easily could, proceed.
His proposal includes the team trading back twice but still holding on to two top 10 picks in the 2024 draft, while also building out an impressive array of early selections over the next two years. The haul the franchise would get in return would allow Chicago to fill numerous positions of need with high-end talent playing on cheap, cost-controlled rookie contracts for the next half-decade.
The Bears could keep Justin Fields (and should), and trade the first pick down once or twice, and build the kind of supporting cast a team needs to contend.
Suppose GM Ryan Poles traded the top pick down one spot to Washington (which would take Caleb Williams), and got the second pick, a second-round pick and a 2025 first-round pick in return. Then suppose Poles traded the second pick to Atlanta at eight, and the Falcons picked one of the other quarterbacks. In return, Chicago gets the eighth pick, Atlanta’s second-round pick, and first- and second-round picks next year.
Imagine moving from 1 to 8 and ending up with this draft haul:
- The eighth and ninth (their own) overall picks in round one this year.
- Second-round picks from Washington and Atlanta this year.
- Three first-round picks and two second-round picks in 2025.
For moving down seven picks in the first round, the Bears could end up with nine picks in the first two rounds of the next two drafts. Instant infrastructure.
Trading Top Pick Gives Bears Host of Options Over Next Several Seasons
GettyChicago Bears general manager Ryan Poles (left) and head coach Matt Eberflus (right).
If the Bears believe at all in Fields’ potential to become a franchise QB, King’s trade-back proposal reads like a no-brainer. Even if they don’t, it still represents a series of moves Poles and company must consider.
Aside from Williams’ potential as a generational talent the likes of Patrick Mahomes, which is the best-case scenario for the USC quarterback and far from a guarantee, Chicago’s greatest advantage in drafting a QB at No. 1 is resetting the contract clock and saving a ton of money.
Fields will play the final season of his rookie deal in 2024, which cost the Bears $18.9 million total. If Chicago exercises its fifth-year team option, which is all but a guarantee whether the team plans to keep or trade Fields, the QB will earn $25.7 million in 2025.
At that point, Fields will be in line for an extension. If he proves himself a quality starter over the next couple of seasons, his new deal should pay him $45-$50 million annually, per Spotrac.
Paying that kind of money to a subpar signal-caller can be catastrophic. However, that won’t be the case in Chicago if the Bears draft an exceptional wide receiver, edge rusher, three-technique defensive tackle and safety over the next two drafts — all of whom would be playing on rookie deals.
Not to mention, the Bears don’t have to re-sign Fields to a monster contract if he doesn’t prove out. The team can deal him in a year or two and use one of the first-round picks it accumulates in King’s proposed trade-back to draft a new QB. At worst, Chicago can let Fields walk in free agency after 2025 and get a compensatory pick in return.