Getty Bears general manager Ryan Poles, left, and head coach Matt Eberflus.
The Chicago Bears are probably going to take a quarterback with the top pick in the NFL draft this April, but one of the best players in football could be within their grasp if they choose instead to trade it.
Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk recently reported that the Minnesota Vikings are hunting a franchise QB and that the best way to acquire such a player is to use 2022 All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson as a trade chip.
If it landed them a franchise QB, would the Vikings be willing to trade WR Justin Jefferson this offseason?
“[The Vikings] want, I believe, a franchise quarterback and trading Justin Jefferson could be the key toward getting the return to move up [in the draft], if that’s what they want to do,” Florio said, per The Viking Age’s X account on Monday, February 19.
If Chicago decides to stick with Justin Fields under center, dealing the top pick for Jefferson and Minnesota’s No. 11 overall selection would fill the team’s need at receiver and give the Bears picks at both No. 9 and No. 11 to address deficiencies on the offensive and defensive lines. The Vikings would probably also need to kick in their 2025 first-round pick, or a package of selections of equal value, to make a deal happen.
Justin Jefferson Has Trade Value of 2 First-Round Picks, Plus More
GettyWide receiver Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings.
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell wrote in October 2023 that Jefferson’s trade value is at least two first-rounders.
“I don’t think Jefferson would land three first-round picks in a trade, but the Vikings likely would be able to nab two first-rounders and a mid-round pick or a starting-caliber veteran if they decided to rebuild from the ground up and trade him,” Barnwell wrote, adding that it wasn’t a plan he would endorse.
However, the math changes when dealing Jefferson affords the Vikings the opportunity to draft USC quarterback Caleb Williams, who has drawn more comparisons to three-time Super Bowl champion Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs than any other prospect in the seven years since Mahomes turned pro.
Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reported on February 10 that it would take a “historic haul” to move Chicago off the top pick in the draft. The Bears received the Nos. 9 and 61 overall selections from the Panthers in 2023, as well as the team’s first-round pick in 2024 (which became No. 1 overall), a 2025 second-rounder and wideout DJ Moore for the right to select first last year.
Simply put, the Bears got two firsts, two seconds and Moore for the top pick in 2023. As such, Jefferson (worth two firsts and a mid-round, via Barnwell) and two more firsts from Minnesota (2024, 2025) feels in the ballpark of the “historic” value Rapoport described ahead of the Super Bowl.
Justin Jefferson About to Become Most Expensive WR in NFL
GettyWide receiver Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings.
The other issue is that Jefferson is about to get paid.
The Bears inherited Moore’s three-year, $62 million contract that runs through the 2025 campaign. Jefferson, on the other hand, is set to play on a $19.7 million fifth-year team option on his rookie deal before heading to free agency in March of next year.
If the Bears trade for the receiver, they would also trade for the right to apply the franchise tag to him and keep Jefferson in 2025. However, there is zero chance Chicago pulls the trigger on a trade involving Jefferson if the franchise isn’t certain it can extend him long-term.
Spotrac projects Jefferson’s market value at 29.3 million over a new four-year contract. However, when healthy he has been the best wide receiver in football — breaking records right and left over his first three seasons, all of which ended in the Pro Bowl. As such, Jefferson has a good chance to break records at the negotiating table as well just as soon as he arrives there.
Justin Jefferson Top Wide Receiver in NFL When Healthy
GettyWide receiver Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings.
Jefferson tallied 1,074 yards and 5 TDs last year despite missing seven games due to a hamstring strain. He led the NFL in catches (128) and yards (1,809) in 2023. In total, he has amassed 392 catches for 5,899 yards and 30 TDs in 60 games played over the course of his four-year NFL career, per Pro Football Reference.
All of that is to say that the soon to be 25-year-old should command even more than Spotrac’s projection of his market value.
The richest deal a receiver has ever gotten in the NFL is $30 million annually, which the Miami Dolphins gave Tyreek Hill on his extension a couple offseasons past. Around that same time, Davante Adams signed a five-year contract with the Las Vegas Raiders for $140 million in total, which was the highest overall figure on a wideout contract in league history.
Jefferson will try for, and presumably get, more than $30 million annually on a five-year deal. That the Bears would have to pay him that money argues for a trade package from the Vikings of Jefferson and at least two firsts.