Getty Scottie Scheffler eyes his tee ball after a drive during the Pro-Am event at Muirfield.
It is that time of the year again. The Memorial Tournament at “Jack’s Place” is back, and with it comes 48 of the world’s 50 best players (OWGR).
At nearly 7,600 yards, Muirfield is one of the longer courses on the tour and one of the more challenging ones, too. Since the course’s major renovation in 2020, the winners have only recorded 10-under or better in two of the four tournaments.
Poor long-iron play, three-putts, and poor driving can quickly kill any hopes of holding the trophy on Sunday. Mistakes and blow-up holes on this course can sink players.
This week, Sepp Straka and Byeong Hun An are terrific long-shot bets to win the 2024 Memorial Tournament. They are entering in great form and have a skill set that matches the course well.
Let’s break down these two long-shot favorites to win The Memorial Tournament this year and our outlook on Scottie Scheffler!
Memorial Tournament Best Bets
Byeong Hun An (+5500)
Byeong Hun An has played in 14 PGA Tour events so far this season and has made the cut in 12 of them while finishing in the top 25 eight times. Last season, Byeong finished T-24 at The Memorial and is entering this year’s tournament in terrific form, with two top-five finishes in his past three tournaments.
Byeong fits this course well, ranking 12th in total driving, including third in driving distance, 10th in GIR% (greens in regulation percentage), 34th in approach from 200+ yards, and 24th in putting average.
Hun An fits the bill for a golfer who can withstand Muirfield’s length and fast greens; he just has to make sure that he prioritizes driving accuracy over hitting bombs every time, as this course can play somewhat narrow and be unforgiving in the rough.
Still, at +5500 odds (an implied probability of 1.79%), Hun An is a solid bet to log his first career win on tour.
Sepp Straka (+6000) – DraftKings
Sepp Straka has been hit-or-miss this season, suffering five missed cuts but finishing in the top 16 six times. You can almost flip a coin at this point, with one side being a missed cut and the other being a top-20 finish!
However, Straka has tightened things up in the past few weeks, entering The Memorial in terrific form. He was T-5 at Charles Schwab and RBC Heritage and T-8 at Wells Fargo. Three of his past four tournaments have resulted in top-10 finishes!
As far as Straka’s course fit, everything checks out. Straka ranks second on tour in driving accuracy, hitting fairways 76.54% of the time. Avoiding trouble like fairway bunkers, thick rough, and trees can help manage your score on a course where double bogeys can be your demise.
Straka also sits at 49th in GIR% (greens in regulation percentage), 52nd in approach to green, and 57th in approaches from 200-225 yards, which he will see much of at Muirfield.
One Last Thought
It seems outlandish to bet on anyone not named Tiger Woods in his prime at -110 to finish in the top five at a tournament featuring 48 of the top 50 players in the OWGR.
However, Scottie Scheffler might be the one exception to the rule, as he has obliterated the competition this season. In fact, Scheffler has finished in the top five in six of his past seven tournaments. Further, he has also registered four wins in that span, including wins at The Masters and The Players.
This season, Scheffler ranks first in shots gained, second in shots gained off the tee, first in shots gained approaching the green, first in greens in regulation percentage, fourth in scrambling, first in putting average, first in Par 4 average, first in birdie average, and 10th in driving accuracy.
Scheffler might not win, given that 48 of the world’s 50 best golfers will be there, but it is incredibly challenging to imagine five golfers stringing together a better four-round performance.