AI-Powered College Basketball Prop Picks & Best Bets for March 11, 2024

It’s a mid-major Monday in college basketball as conference tournaments get into full swing on March 11, 2024, across the country with March Madness getting closer. The major conferences get their tournaments underway on March 12, but there is plenty of action on the slate tonight.

We’ve used our AI-powered dfsPro projections to identify a few plays that could give you an edge over the sportsbooks and DFS prop pick’em games tonight:

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Gonzaga’s Anton Watson & 2 Other Points Prop Standouts

There are three players that our AI-powered projections model likes better than the consensus prop lines. Here’s who you should take a look at tonight when making your betting picks and DFS plays:

Gonzaga F Anton Watson Over 12.5 Points (+100 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Bulldogs forward is projected to score 12.8 points against the San Francisco Dons in the semifinals of the WCC tournament in Las Vegas. The game gets underway at 11:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2. Watson is averaging 14.2 points per game this season for Gonzaga. The forward scored 10 points in his last game against the Dons on February 29 and had 15 in their first matchup of the season back on January 25.

It’s a chance to buy low on Watson, who had just 2 points in a Gonzaga victory over Saint Mary’s in his final game of the regular season. Gonzaga does have a lot of scoring options and leaned on Graham Ike (24 points) and Ryan Nembhard (20 points). But that game was an outlier for Watson, who scored more than 13 points in 7 of his last 8 games. Watson was named to the All-WCC First Team ahead of the tournament.

Our projections also have Watson pulling down 7.8 rebounds and recording 2.1 assists against San Francisco. Gonzaga is a 9-point favorite over the Dons (-470 on the moneyline). Our model gives Gonzaga a 78% win probability.

East Tennessee State G Ebby Asamoah Over 14.5 Points (-120)

Asamoah fouled out of ETSU’s stunning come-from-behind win over Chattanooga in the Southern Conference Tournament semifinals on March 10, but not before he scored 21 points in 22 minutes.

The guard from Maryland is ETSU’s leading scorer this season, averaging 15.6 points per game. He outpaced that average in his two previous games against the Buccaneers next opponent, Samford. ETSU will need a big effort from Asamoah to pull off another upset win over the top seed in Samford to earn a trip to the Big Dance. The game gets underway at 7 p.m. on ESPN.

Asamoah has been on fire in the SOCON tournament, scoring 24 against UNC-Greensboro in the quarterfinals on March 9. Asamoah is also projected to have 4.9 rebounds and 1.2 assists along with 2.5 3-pointers against Samford. ETSU is a 9.5-point underdog against Samford (+390 moneyline) and our model is slightly heavier on Samford, setting the Bulldogs at -10.

Charleston F Ante Brzovic Over 12.5 Points (+100)

Brzovic and Charleston are in the semifinals of the CAA tournament and will be taking on Towson at 6 p.m. Eastern on the CBS Sports Network. Our projection model has Brzovic slated to score 13 points.

Brzovic scored 15 points in Charleston’s quarterfinals victory over Monmouth on March 10. He had 18 in the regular season finale against Hofstra and 14 against Campbell in the game before that.

Brzovic is averaging 12.5 points per game, right on his prop total. He’s also projected to have 7.3 rebounds. Charleston is a 6-point favorite over Towson on DraftKings Sportsbook (-245 on the moneyline), but our model is projecting the Cougars to win by an even wider margin, projecting the line at -11.5 and giving Charleston a 86% win probability.

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Northern Kentucky’s Trey Robinson Is Projected to Be a Rebounding Monster — Plus 2 Others to Watch

Northern Kentucky G Trey Robinson Over 7.5 Rebounds (-115)

The 6’6″ guard for Northern Kentucky is the Norse’s top rebounder this season, averaging 6.9 rebounds per game. Robinson is projected to have 9 rebounds against Milwaukee in the Horizon League semifinals on ESPN2 at 9:30 p.m. Eastern. Robinson had 12 rebounds against Wright State in his last outing in the tournament’s quarterfinals on March 10. He has had 8 or more rebounds in 13 games this season.

You might also want to take a look at Robinson’s points prop. He’s projected to have 13.8 points by our model, while DraftKings Sportsbook has set his points prop at 13.5 (-130). Robinson and the Norse are a slight favorite (-1, -125) over Milwaukee and our model gives them a 52% win probability as -1.5 favorites.

Hofstra G Darlinstone Dubar Over 6.5 Rebounds (-135)

Dubar and Hofstra are set to take on the Stony Brook Seawolves in the semifinals of the CAA tournament at 8:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS Sports Network. Our model is projecting Dubar to have 7.8 rebounds. Dubar is also projected to have 16.2 points and 2.2 assists against Stony Brook.

Dubar is averaging 6.8 rebounds per game to lead the Pride this season. He’s averaged 9 rebounds per game in his two previous matchups with Stony Brook and pulled down 11 boards in the quarterfinals against Delaware. Against Stony Brook, Hofstra is an 8-point favorite (-355 on the moneyline). But our model isn’t as confident in Hofstra, setting the line a -4 with a 63% win probability.

Oakland F Trey Townsend Over 7.5 Rebounds (-135

Townsend and Oakland will be taking on Cleveland State in the other Horizon League semifinals matchup in a game that gets started at 7 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU. Townsend is projected by our AI-powered model to have 8.8 rebounds.

He’s averaging a team-high 7.7 rebounds per game this year and had 11 boards in the quarterfinals of the conference tournament against Purdue-Fort Wayne. He averaged 10.5 rebounds in Oakland’s previous two games against Cleveland State this season.

Townsend is also projected to have 17 points and 2.8 assists against Cleveland State. The Grizzlies are a 5-point favorite against Cleveland State (-225 on the moneyline) on DraftKings Sportsbook. Our model sets Oakland as a 6-point favorite with a 70% win probability.

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Oakland’s Blake Lampman & Hofstra’s Tyler Thomas Are Projected to Outperform Their Assist Totals

Oakland G Blake Lampman Over 2.5 Assists (-145)

Lampman is projected to have 3 assists against Cleveland State. He’s averaging 3.1 assists per game this season. Lampman is also projected to have 11.9 points and 3.2 rebounds.

Hofstra G Tyler Thomas Over 2.5 Assists (-145)

Thomas is projected to have 3.6 assists for Hofstra against Stony Brook in the CAA semifinals. Thomas is averaging 3.3 assists per game this season. Thomas is also projected to score 19.8 points and pull down 6.2 rebounds.

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