NBA Player Props: Lillard’s Volume Will Increase Without Giannis

With Giannis Antetokounmpo set to miss some time due to a lower leg injury, Damian Lillard will see an increased role offensively, including in this game against the Orlando Magic.

Milwaukee’s Lillard and Orlando’s Jalen Suggs should surpass their respective point totals on Wednesday night in this high-stakes matchup between the Bucks and Magic.

Find my analysis and breakdown for our dfsPro model’s 2 NBA player props below to see why I am so excited about these picks!

NBA Player Props for April 10

Damian Lillard Over 27.5 Points (-115) – bet365

Lillard has not had quite as successful of a season alongside Antetokounmpo as many envisioned. Part of his struggles can be attributed to the volatility in coaching and learning to play with the ball in his hands less.

However, when Antetokounmpo has missed time this season, Lillard has thrived. In fact, he is averaging 32.3 points per game on 47.6% shooting from the field and 42.6% from 3-point land in 6 games without him.

In those 6 games, Lillard has scored 28 or more points 5 times, including a 41-point explosion versus the Los Angeles Clippers in early March.

The only game that Lillard fell short of this point total was against Cleveland, and he only played 25 minutes in that game due to a 40-point blowout loss.

The Magic have also allowed the fifth-most points to opposing point guards of any team in the NBA, giving Lillard a clear path to a solid outing.

It is clear that Lillard is at his best when he is the de facto option offensively, and he will be in prime position to put points on the board in this high-stakes game against Orlando.

Jalen Suggs Over 13.5 Points (-115) – DraftKings

Orlando is a bit banged up right now, with guard Gary Harris ruled out, and Markelle Fultz and Franz Wagner listed as questionable ahead of its game against the Bucks.

Suggs has stepped up recently, scoring 19 and 21 points in his past 2 games, providing the Magic with secondary scoring alongside All-Star Paolo Banchero.

Additionally, he has gone Over this line (13.5) in 5 of his past 7 games. With Harris sidelined, Suggs should see more minutes at the shooting guard spot tonight.

Suggs also has the luxury of going up against Milwaukee, one of the worst perimeter defensive backcourts in the NBA. The Bucks allow the second-most points to opposing point guards and the fourth-most points to opposing shooting guards.

While Patrick Beverley’s insertion into the starting lineup could slightly improve the Bucks’ perimeter defense, it is unlikely to change the overall output completely.

Our dfsPro model projects Suggs to finish with 14.6 points, 2.1 points above (+16.8%) his season average. 

One Last Thought

The last 3 games of the 2023-24 regular season are of varying importance to each team. Several teams are out of the playoff picture, some are trying to hold on (or sneak in), and others are fighting for seeding and positioning atop the conference. 

This game between the Orlando Magic and Milwaukee Bucks, in particular, holds substantial value for both teams. Milwaukee is trying to hold onto second place in the Eastern Conference, while Orlando is hoping to pass up the New York Knicks and Milwaukee before the end of the regular season. 

The Bucks are in a tough position. They will be without Antetokounmpo and have to play the Oklahoma City Thunder and Magic on the road for their final two games.

Be sure to tune in daily throughout the upcoming NBA Playoffs to see our dfsPro model’s favorite picks and our analysis of their viability!

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