NBA Player Props: Can Trey Murphy III Capitalize on Increase in Offensive Role?

Trey Murphy III

Getty Trey Murphy III tries to finish at the rim against Brooklyn.

The stakes are sky-high for the New Orleans Pelicans as they try to hold off Phoenix for sixth place in the Western Conference, which would help them avoid the Play-In Tournament. The Pels will again be without Brandon Ingram, who has missed the past 10 games due to a knee injury, resulting in more minutes and offensive usage for Trey Murphy III. 

Our dfsPro model projects the Pelicans’ Murphy to score 16 or more points and De’Aaron Fox of the Sacramento Kings to pull down 6 or more rebounds in this matchup. Let’s analyze these two bets and why they have value.

NBA Player Props for April 11

Trey Murphy Over 15.5 Points (-130) – DraftKings

New Orleans’ roster is loaded with wings, making it hard for talented bench players to see the floor consistently. Murphy has logged just 21 starts in the 54 games he has been available this season, but he has made the most of those starts, especially recently.

In Murphy’s past eight games, he has averaged 17.1 points on 44.3% shooting from the field, 36.9% from 3-point land and 90% from the charity stripe, eclipsing the Over on this line (15.5) in four outings.

In that stretch, Murphy has logged 37.2 minutes per game, 8.1 more minutes than his season average. Murphy’s recent play without Ingram has also been positive, posting a 19-point average in his past five games. 

Additionally, Murphy has scored 16 or more points in four of his past five against the Kings and has done so every time he has either played 30 or more minutes or shot double-digit field goal attempts.

Our model projects Murphy to finish with 19.8 points, which is 5.4 (+37.5%) more than his season average.

De’Aaron Fox Over 5.5 Rebounds (+114) – DraftKings

This season, Fox has made a concerted effort to improve his rebounding, averaging 0.4 more rebounds than last season (4.2). During the 2023-24 campaign, Fox averaged the most rebounds per game in his career (4.6). 

He has been even better recently, pulling down 6 rebounds per game in his past 10 outings; he has recorded 6 or more rebounds in six of those 10 games. 

Our AI-powered model projects Fox to reel in 6.6 rebounds, a massive 43.48% increase from his season average of 4.6. This game is extremely important for Sacramento, so expect Fox to be active on both ends and on the glass.

1 Last Thought

Only three games separate the sixth-seeded New Orleans Pelicans and the 10th-seeded Golden State Warriors. Golden State has a sizable lead on 11th place, so it doesn’t have to worry about missing the Play-In Tournament, but it will be facing an uphill battle, forced to win back-to-back road games in the tournament just to sneak into the NBA Playoffs. 

As alluded to above, the Pelicans are only 0.5 games ahead of the Phoenix Suns with three games remaining in their schedule. They will be tested with a road game tonight against Sacramento and Golden State and then at home against the Los Angeles Lakers.

Meanwhile, a Kings win at home against New Orleans can close the two-game gap by a full game with two games remaining. This gives them a backdoor chance of sneaking into the No. 6 spot in the west.

Our dfsPro model has given the Pels a 42% chance of winning on the road against Sacramento, substantially lower than the 51.22% implied probability of his -105 odds on DraftKings. Consider rolling with Sacramento at home, as it still has plenty to play for in terms of conference positioning.