Getty Wembanyama runs back on defense during San Antonio's game against the Philadelphia 76ers.
The Rookie of the Year race should already belong to Victor Wembanyama, but that won’t stop him from decimating the injury-riddled Memphis Grizzlies. Our dfsPro model projects Wembanyama to eclipse his assist total and 3-pointer total against the Grizzlies on Tuesday night.
Find my breakdown of Wembanyama’s player props below, including why I believe our model is spot on for this matchup against the Grizzlies!
NBA Player Props for April 9
Victor Wembanyama Over 5.5 Assists (+100) – DraftKings
Wemby has a 32% usage rate this season but in his past 6 games that number has jumped to 34.5%, meaning he is being used more offensively. This has been directly correlated to the absences of Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan, who have been ruled out for the remainder of the season. Vassell and Sochan have missed the past 4 games due to injury, and Wembanyama has taken on an even greater offensive workload in that time.
Despite posting just 3.8 assists per game this season, which is still quite impressive for a 7-foot-5 rookie center, his average has spiked to 6.8 assists in his last 6 outings.
Expect Memphis to throw double-teams at Wembanyama, as it does not have anyone remotely tall or long enough to defend him in the interior. Trey Jemison is one of the only big men that the Grizzlies have at their disposal, and he has little chance of stopping Wemby in post-up situations. There will be plenty of kick-out 3s and backdoor cuts available for his teammates.
Our AI-powered model suggests that Wemby will record 6.3 assists against Memphis, 0.8 more than his betting line of 5.5. At +100 odds on DraftKings, backing the Over on his assists has value.
Victor Wembanyama Over 2.5 Made 3s (-115) – DraftKings
Wembanyama should have an advantage at the 3-point line against Memphis. The Grizzlies have allowed opponents to knock down 38% of their 3-point attempts, the fourth-worst average in the league.
In Wembanyama’s past 5 games, he has recorded 3.4 made 3s on 9.2 attempts. He also has hit the Over on this line in 4 of those 5 games. Wemby has had double-digit 3-point attempts in 3 of those 5 games, suggesting he could have substantial volume again in this game against Memphis, a poor perimeter defense.
Additionally, Wemby took 12 3-point attempts in the Spurs’ last matchup with the Grizzlies on March 22, on his way to hitting the Over on this line. This is a terrific spot to back the “Alien.”
One Last Thought
The Grizzlies have struggled with injuries all season, making it challenging for them to gain momentum or traction in a brutally competitive Western Conference. Last season, Memphis was the best home team in the NBA, boasting a mesmerizing 35-6 record at FedExForum.
However, the Grizzlies are only 9-29 in front of their fans during the 2023-24 campaign, the worst mark in the Western Conference and the third-worst in the entire NBA. Additionally, Memphis has only covered the spread in 15 of its 38 home games, making it the fourth-worst team ATS. I will lay up to 4 points with the San Antonio Spurs.
With the NBA Playoffs soon approaching, be sure to continue checking in every day to see what bets our dfsPro model is churning!