NBA Playoff Props: Can Dort Lock Down Ingram Again In Game 4?

After a narrow win in Game 1, the Oklahoma City Thunder have since taken control of this first-round series against the New Orleans Pelicans. The Pelicans have been without All-Star forward Zion Williamson throughout this series due to a hamstring injury he suffered in the Play-In Tournament.

With Lu Dort swarming Brandon Ingram on every possession, Ingram should continue to struggle to get shots up and make the ones that he does take. Further, Larry Nance Jr. could be in line for increased minutes due to Jonas Valanciunas’ defensive weaknesses.

Our model has been red-hot recently; see below if it can nail two more player props for this matchup between the Thunder and Pelicans!

NBA Playoff Props for April 29

Brandon Ingram Under 21.5 Points (-118) – DraftKings

Disappointing does not even describe Ingram’s performance in the Pelicans’ first-round series against the top-seeded Thunder.

However, Ingram is not entirely to blame for his underwhelming offensive outings in this series; Dort’s defense has caused Ingram to struggle on that end of the floor.

In fact, Dort has held Ingram to just a 16.3-point average through the first three series games, including a 12-point performance in Game 1. He also has shot just 41.5% from the field in those games.

Even more concerning than Ingram’s inefficient shooting has been his volume, as he has only taken an average of 13.7 field goal attempts per game. So Dort has held Ingram to sub-par shooting percentages and deterred him from shooting as much as usual despite Zion Williamson being injured.

It is challenging to see Ingram’s efficiency and volume drastically improving in Game 4, as he underperformed throughout all three games.

Our AI-powered model feels the same way, forecasting Ingram to finish with just 18.7 points, 2.1 fewer (-10.1%) than his season average and even further below his current line of 21.5.

Oklahoma City’s game plan of sticking Dort on Ingram and avoiding switches on ball screens has worked, and the Thunder will have no plans to change that up.

Larry Nance Over 17.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-115) – DraftKings

The Pelicans finally opted to utilize a small-ball lineup for most of the game, with Nance Jr. deployed at the five. Nance totaled 29 minutes, nearly as many as his first two games of the series combined (33). 

Meanwhile, Valanciunas failed to eclipse 12 minutes in Game 3 due to being “played off the floor.” Since Valanciunas is not a great 3-point shooter, lacks the lateral quickness to switch off on guards or wings, and cannot protect the rim, despite his significant size, he has become virtually unplayable in this series.

If Valanciunas were a dominant interior presence offensively like Joel Embiid, a fierce rim protector like Rudy Gobert, or a sharpshooting stretch five like Chet Holmgren, the opponent he has been matched up against, then he could be a considerable impact piece in this series for the Pels. Unfortunately, he is not.

This leaves Nance in a prime position to log ample minutes for Game 4 and, hopefully, post a similar stat line to Game 3 in the process.

Our model projects Nance to finish with 9.3 points, 7 rebounds, and 2.8 assists, all substantially higher than his season averages. Nance clobbered the Over on this line (17.5) in Game 3, finishing with 27 points, rebounds, and assists.

One Last Thought

New Orleans has not been as formidable of an opponent as I expected for the Thunder. While the Pels have been without Williamson for the entire series, they have plenty of defensive weapons and a handful of young, talented players they can lean on.

Still, the Pels could get swept tonight. Can they avoid the dreaded sweep from OKC?

Our model has New Orleans as a 4.5-point home underdog, 0.5 points tighter than most major sportsbooks’ spread (5).

I will stay off this spread and focus on player props, but if I had to choose, I’d lean slightly toward the Pels to cover as home dogs.

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