NBA Playoff Props: Can Embiid Lead Sixers To Game 3 Win?

Joel Embiid

Getty Joel Embiid drives into the paint to find his shot.

The pressure is on for the Philadelphia 76ers, who collapsed in the final seconds of Game 2, allowing the New York Knicks to extend their series lead to 2-0. Joel Embiid and the Sixers must win Game 3 if they want any chance of making this a competitive series.

Our dfsPro model projects Embiid to knock down several 3-pointers on his way to a big offensive outing, while Isaiah Hartenstein will be one of the Knicks’ more productive all-around players.

Find out below what makes these two bets from our model viable!

NBA Playoff Props for April 25

Joel Embiid Over 1.5 Made 3-Pointers (-142) – DraftKings

Embiid’s first two games in this series against the Knicks have had promising glimpses, but ultimately, it is clear he is still struggling to get back to 100% health.

While Embiid has averaged 31.5 points, 9 rebounds, and 6 assists in Games 1 and 2, he has shot a putrid 39.2% from the field and 23.5% from behind the arc. So why would I be high on him for Game 3, knowing he isn’t as healthy as before his knee injury?

For one, this is a must-win game for the Sixers, so they will lean heavily on Embiid for offensive output; they won’t go down without a fight, so I expect Embiid to play 40 or more minutes in Game 3.

Embiid’s 3-point volume is also attractive for Over bettors in this spot. He has averaged 8.5 3-point attempts through the first two games of the NBA Playoffs.

Even though he has struggled to knock them down at a high percentage, Embiid has hit the Over on this line (1.5) in both playoff games and six consecutive games overall.

Our AI-powered model projects Embiid to shoot 6.7 3-pointers in this home game against New York and expects him to knock down 2.5 of them. That is an 86.11% increase on his season average for 3-pointers attempted (3.6) and a 78.57% increase on his 3-pointers made average (1.4). 

Isaiah Hartenstein Over 18.5 Points+Assists+Rebounds (+100) – DraftKings

Since Mitchell Robinson suffered a significant injury earlier in the season, Hartenstein has stepped up for the Knicks. 

As a starter, Hartenstein has averaged 9.4 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game on a highly efficient 66.3% shooting from the floor. Even with Mitchell Robinson back from injury, Hartenstein has kept his spot in the starting lineup.

Through the first two games of the playoffs, Hartenstein has averaged 10 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists, hitting the Over on this line (18.5) in Game 2.

Our dfsPro model forecasts Hartenstein finishing with 10 points, 8 rebounds, and 3.7 assists.

The matchup with Embiid is tough, but Hartenstein has proven he can compete on the glass with him, as well as make impressive passes on offense, and convert putback attempts at the rim. 

At plus money, there is value here with the Over on Hartenstein’s PRA.

One Last Thought

As alluded to above, this is a must-win position for the Sixers. They will be down 3-0 in the series against the No. 2 seeded Knicks if they lose. 

The Sixers should have snuck away with a Game 2 win, evening up the series and flipping home-court advantage before returning to Philadelphia; however, a few unfortunate calls (and no-calls) resulted in a last-minute collapse. 

Most sportsbooks have the point spread at 5.5 points in favor of Philadelphia, but our model loves the Sixers at home and suggests a 7-point spread for Game 3.

This is a bounce-back spot for a resilient and talented Sixers team that will not roll over in this series. They should win by near-double-digits tonight.