Getty Tyler Herro runs back on defense after hitting a shot against the Chicago Bulls in the Play-In Tournament.
Tyler Herro’s play in Game 1 was a significant letdown for Miami Heat fans, to say the least.
This time around, Herro will put together a much more well-rounded offensive performance, while Nikola Jovic should continue to hit the glass hard in Game 2 against the Boston Celtics.
Let’s break down the analysis below, including why our dfsPro model is spot on in its projections!
NBA Playoff Props for April 24
Tyler Herro Over 30.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-115) – DraftKings
Tyler Herro’s PRA (points, rebounds, and assists) prop line sits at 30.5, which seems like a lot considering his poor Game 1 performance; he finished with just 11 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists on 4-for-13 shooting from the field.
However, our AI-powered model suggests that Herro will break out in Game 2, keeping this game between Miami and Boston within relative striking distance. In fact, it projects Herro will finish with 23.6 points, 6.9 assists, and 5.6 rebounds in Game 2.
The two most significant projected increases from Herro’s season averages in this game are points and assists. His 23.6-point projection is 2.8 points more (+13.46%) than his season average of 20.8, while the 6.9-assist forecast is 53.33% more than his 2023-24 regular season average.
Jimmy Butler’s absence puts more pressure on Herro to produce offensively than usual, but he averaged 21.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.6 assists in 14 games without Butler this season, so this is not uncharted territory for him.
Before Game 1 of this series, Herro had gone over this line (30.5) in five of his past six games despite recently returning from an injury. Boston’s defense ranks second in defensive rating this season, so nothing will come easy for Herro, but his usage will be extremely high again.
Nikola Jovic Over 4.5 Rebounds (-112) – DraftKings
Another consideration with Butler sidelined is which Heat players will log more minutes and potentially see more overall usage. Jovic falls into the category of a player who will be leaned on heavily, particularly as a rebounder.
At 6-foot-10, Jovic is one of the tallest players on the Heat roster. His ability to rebound has helped him find the floor more consistently for this team. Miami’s rotation is notoriously hard to crack.
Our model projects Jovic will finish with 5.6 rebounds, 1.2 more (+33.33%) than his season average.
Recently, Jovic has been a ball hawk, flying into the paint to snag rebounds. He has logged five or more rebounds in six of his past seven games. The only game in which he fell short of five rebounds was against Toronto; he only played 16 minutes.
Due to Miami’s injury situation, it would be doubtful for Jovic to only see the floor for that amount of time. He actually finished Game 1 with 26 minutes, which is a much closer representation of what we can expect in Game 2.
One Last Thought
Occasionally, there is a slight discrepancy between our model’s projection for where the spread should be and where it actually sits; however, for this Game 2 between the Celtics and Heat, the gap is massive.
DraftKings has the point spread at 14.5 points in favor of Boston on its home floor; however, our model suggests that the line should be closer to 9.5 points. The Heat have fared relatively well without Butler all season, and while Boston has a substantial edge, laying 14.5 points to back the C’s will not be my play.
I will ride with Miami +14.5. Head coach Erik Spoelstra tends to figure out how to keep games competitive with battered rosters.