It is bold to fade Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but having Herb Jones shadow him all game has our dfsPro model strongly favoring the under on his 28.5-point total.
Additionally, our model suggests that Larry Nance Jr. will score seven or more points against Oklahoma City due to increased minutes and offensive relevance.
This series between the Gilgeous-Alexander-led Thunder and the New Orleans Pelicans could be closer than most expect. Let’s dive into the NBA playoff props for Sunday, April 21, 2024.
NBA Playoff Props for April 21
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 28.5 Points (-115) – DraftKings
It is dangerous to suggest that an MVP candidate will score fewer than 29 points in an NBA playoff game, but this would be it if there were a spot to do it.
Our dfsPro model projects that Gilgeous-Alexander will finish with merely 22.9 points, which is 7.2 points below (-23.92%) his season average. He also is expected to shoot 2.5 fewer (-28.74%) free throws in this game than his 8.7 average, primarily due to a tighter whistle in the playoffs.
That is a substantial gap between our model’s projection and the betting line for SGA. Why is that the case?
The main reason for SGA’s likely drop-off in scoring is that Herb Jones will defend him, the best perimeter defender in the NBA. Jones uses his terrific size, length, quickness, and IQ to make life tough on his opponents; SGA will not be an exception.
SGA has been Under this point total in three of his past five games against Jones, who will follow him like a shadow throughout the game. Expect New Orleans to force other players to hit shots in this series and limit Gilgeous-Alexander from having the ball in his hands too much.
Larry Nance Jr. Over 6.5 Points (-110) – DraftKings
This first-round series for the New Orleans Pelicans allows them the unique opportunity to roll out Larry Nance Jr. at the center position in more small-ball-focused lineups.
Nance should see more minutes instead of Valanciunas, who does not match up well against a Thunder team that likes to spread the floor and stretch Chet Holmgren out to the perimeter.
This leaves Jonas in a bind. He is a poor rim protector and not laterally quick enough to keep Chet in front.
Due to this matchup, our model projects Nance will finish with 9.8 points, which is 4.1 points (+71.93%) more than his season average of 5.7.
Nance has been well over this point total line in three consecutive games, scoring in double-digits in all of them and logging 21 or more minutes, too, including 28 and 31 minutes in two games against the Lakers.
AD and Chet have face-up-style offensive games, so this could indicate Nance will play more. Nance is averaging just shy of 26 minutes per game in three outings versus the Thunder this season.
One Last Thought
The Oklahoma City Thunder lucked into getting a Zion-less Pelicans squad in their first-round matchup of the NBA Playoffs, but that does not necessarily mean they will coast through this team in four games.
As alluded to above, New Orleans does match up fairly well with the Thunder, as it is a wing-heavy squad. The Pels force teams into the second-lowest 3-point percentage, while OKC is the top 3-point shooting team in the NBA.
If Jones can slow down SGA and force other players to hit shots, the Pelicans could keep this series relatively close. Keep up-to-date with all of our dfsPro picks and NBA playoff props during this postseason.
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NBA Playoff Props: Can Herb Jones Shut Down SGA In Game 1?