Getty Aaron Wiggins hits a 3-pointer versus the Dallas Mavericks.
Upset alert! The fourth-seeded Dallas Mavericks have taken a 2-1 series lead over the top-seeded, SGA-led Oklahoma City Thunder. Will Dallas extend its lead to 3-1, or will the Thunder flip home-court advantage back in their favor and even up the series?
The game itself could be a coin flip, with the spread resting at 1.5 (in favor of Dallas), but our dfsPro model projects Aaron Wiggins to capitalize on increased minutes and knock down one or more 3-pointers and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to reel in 8 or more rebounds.
Let’s analyze these two player props from Game 4 between the Thunder and Mavericks below!
NBA Playoff Props for May 13
Aaron Wiggins Over 0.5 Made 3s (-155) – DraftKings
Head coach Mark Daigneault has decided to lean more on Wiggins in this Western Conference Semifinal matchup against Dallas. At least, he has leaned on him more than in the Thunder’s first-round series.
There are three promising things about backing Wiggins to hit at least one 3-pointer in Game 4: his volume in this series, his increase in minutes, and Dallas’s perimeter defense throughout the season.
In his past three playoff outings versus the Mavs, Wiggins has attempted 3.3 3-pointers per game, a solid volume for a player who needs to hit only one 3-pointer. This is especially promising given that he has shot the ball at a 49% clip from deep this season.
Additionally, Wiggins’s increase in minutes from 15 to roughly 22 is a huge deal, especially against a team like the Mavericks, who can occasionally lose shooters on the defensive end of the floor.
In fact, the Mavs have allowed teams to shoot nearly 37% from deep on close to 36 attempts per game. While their perimeter defense isn’t as poor as in previous seasons, it is still nowhere near a strength.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 7.5 Rebounds (+114) – DraftKings
A plus-money special!
Gilgeous-Alexander has been impacting these playoff games for the Thunder in numerous ways, including on the glass. In fact, he has pulled down double-digit boards in three of his past four games, with the one game he fell short in still resulting in a 9-rebound outing. He has hit the Over on this line (7.5) in every game during this series.
This should not be a surprise, considering Dallas is a sub-par rebounding team, ranking 26th in total rebounding rate during the 2023-24 regular season. Further, the Mavericks have allowed opposing point guards to bring down the third-most rebounds per game of any team in the NBA. Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic aren’t exactly rebounding savants.
In a borderline must-win game for the Thunder, SGA will contribute in every way he can on both ends of the floor, including the rebounding department.
One Last Thought
Let’s stay on Gilgeous-Alexander for a moment.
It might be worth sprinkling a little bit on him to finish with a triple-double at +2000 on DraftKings.
SGA has finished two of his past three games just shy of a triple-double, missing out on one in Game 1 by one rebound and one assist and in Game 2 by two assists.
As mentioned earlier, Dallas allows opposing point guards to pull down a boatload of rebounds, and SGA’s usage rate has been even higher in the past three games than during the 2023-24 regular season.