Getty Derrick White of the Boston Celtics.
There is no way around it: this is a must-win game for the Cleveland Cavaliers after giving home-court advantage back to the Boston Celtics in Game 3. So, what should we expect heading into Game 4?
Our dfsPro model projects Derrick White to snap out of his two-game shooting slide and Evan Mobley to fall short of his blocks prop against a 3-point-heavy Boston team.
Let’s break down the analysis for our model’s projections below!
NBA Playoff Props for May 13
Derrick White Over 15.5 Points (-118) – DraftKings
Right now is the perfect time to buy low on White, who is fresh off two mediocre shooting nights in Games 2 and 3 against Cleveland. In the previous three games, White posted 25 points twice and had a 38-point explosion in Game 4 versus the Miami Heat.
There are a few key points for backing the Over on White’s points in Game 4. For one, White has had a tremendous amount of volume and usage on the offensive end of the floor so far in the playoffs. In fact, White has averaged 19.9 points on 13.9 field goal attempts per game in the postseason.
His efficiency on those attempts has been equally exciting as his 51/44/87 split borders on elite shooting.
Our AI-powered model projects White to finish with 18.1 points, 2.9 more (+19.08%) than his season average, on 14.2 field goal attempts in Game 4.
Evan Mobley Under 1.5 Blocks (-110) – DraftKings
With Jarrett Allen likely still sidelined, Mobley will be the Cavaliers’ primary rim protector and de facto center; however, that does not mean he will be in for a block party in Game 4 against the Celtics.
Boston allows the fewest blocks to opposing centers of any team in the NBA, mainly due to its 3-point-heavy offensive attack. The Celtics attempt the most 3-pointers (42.1) and score the fourth-fewest points in the paint in the league.
This puts Mobley in a tricky position, as there won’t be virtually any opportunities to block shots, especially with Kristaps Porzingis still listed as out and Al Horford hovering primarily around the perimeter in Boston’s offensive sets.
If Allen, who is listed as questionable but has missed the team’s past six games, can play, that will force Mobley to defend Jayson Tatum more at the four.
Mobley will then have few opportunities to float in and around the paint for weak side block opportunities. On the defensive end, this is a lose-lose situation for Mobley.
One Last Thought
All major sportsbooks currently have the spread for Game 4 of the Celtics versus Cavaliers listed at 8.5. However, our model suggests we could be in store for a closer game, listing the expected spread at 6.5 points.
After a dominant Game 2 win, Boston bounced back in a major way, winning by 13 points in its first road game of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Still, I don’t expect Cleveland to roll over in a must-win game; if the Cavs lose, they would have to win three consecutive games, including two games in Madison Square Garden.
This season, Cleveland was a solid home team, winning 26 of its 41 games at Rocket Mortgage with a net rating of +4.1. Despite the Cavs’ Game 3 loss, they still have a 4-1 home record in the postseason.
This game should be close until the end, and given the discrepancy between our model and the spread on the sportsbooks, it might be worth taking Cleveland against the spread.