NHL Player Props: AI Model Projects J.T. Miller to Light Up Kings

The NHL‘s March 25 slate features two important Western Conference matchups, with the St. Louis Blues hosting the Vegas Golden Knights and the Los Angeles Kings visiting the Vancouver Canucks.

There will be two critical points on the line in St. Louis as the Blues and the defending Stanley Cup champion Golden Knights duke it out for the final Wild Card spot in the West; Vegas currently holds a four-point lead, but a win by a desperate St. Louis team tonight could quickly cut that lead in half.

In Vancouver, both teams will be battling for postseason seeding; the Canucks are a point up on the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars for top seed in the Western Conference, while the Kings have a two-point lead over Vegas for third place in the Pacific Division.

With just two games on the docket tonight, we’re going to focus on individual skater performances with our picks. Let’s dive into some of our dfsPro model’s favorite player props!

St. Louis Blues vs. Vegas Golden Knights

Shea Theodore: Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-110, DraftKings)

Theodore is averaging 2.31 shots per game this season, the second-most by a Vegas defenseman. However, our dfsPro model projects him to finish with 2.81 shots, a 21.86% increase from his season average.

He’s not a volume goal scorer (he only has four this season), but Theodore will put the puck on the net. He has taken an above-average 59 shots in 21 career games vs. St. Louis, so it would be wise to take the over on his shot line at 2.5.

Robert Thomas: Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+135, DraftKings)

Thomas is averaging a slightly more modest 2.1 shots per game this season, but our model projects a 32.23% increase of 2.78 shots against the Golden Knights. He has already set a new career high with 149 shots in 71 games during the 2023-24 campaign, up from his previous career high of 106 shots in 73 games set last season.

Thomas tied for the team lead in shots with four in the Blues’ most recent game on March 23, a 5-4 overtime loss to the Minnesota Wild. He has 14 shots over his last five games, so it’s reasonable to expect a higher volume from him against Vegas.

Los Angeles Kings vs. Vancouver Canucks

J.T. Miller: Over 0.5 Assists (+100, DraftKings)

Miller is averaging more than a point per game in his career against the Kings, and he has had a point in 13 of his last 14 games against them. In other words, it’s safe to say he has their number.

Our model projects exactly 0.5 assists for Miller, a 36.7% decrease from his average of 0.79 per game. With 17 assists in 22 career games against Los Angeles, Miller’s history suggests that it’s not a bad idea to take the over.

Adrian Kempe: Over 0.5 Points (+140, DraftKings)

Kempe is averaging 0.95 points per game this season but has historically struggled against the Canucks, posting just 10 points in 20 career games for an average of 0.5. Our model projects 0.85 points for Kempe in tonight’s matchup, which is lower than his season average but significantly higher than his career average against Vancouver.

The winger is currently riding a three-game point streak with nine points over his last five games. Ride with the hot hand and bet the over on Kempe.

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