Getty Caitlin Clark drives the ball against LSU during the Hawkeyes' Elite 8 win.
Caitlin Clark and Paige Bueckers headline the marquee Final Four matchup between the Iowa Hawkeyes and Connecticut Huskies. After nailing 9 3-pointers in Iowa’s win against LSU on April 1, Clark is again in line for a massive night from behind the arc, while Bueckers should continue dominating the glass in this fast-paced matchup.
Below, I analyze my favorite player prop bets for Clark and Bueckers in this historic matchup between the Hawkeyes and the Huskies. Don’t forget to check out other dfsPro picks for other games, too!
Women’s Final Four Player Props for April 5
Caitlin Clark Over 5.5 3s Made (-130) – BetRivers
It should not be a shock that Clark’s props are juiced at all the sportsbooks; they naturally want to capitalize on the hype surrounding the country’s most exciting basketball player.
But a little juice won’t cause me to shy away from backing Clark. As evidenced in her last game against the LSU Tigers, Clark performs well in the biggest games; she finished with 41 points on 9-for-20 shooting from 3-point land.
Clark has the ultimate green light for Iowa, and I’m not sure that her supporting cast will have much success scoring on the Huskies in the half-court, as they hold opponents to the seventh lowest field goal percentage in the nation.
Sure, the Hawkeyes’ role players might get a few buckets in transition off mesmerizing cross-court passes from Clark or knock down an occasional 3-pointer when Clark is passing out of a double-team. Still, overall, the UConn defense is much more disciplined than LSU’s.
Clark will have to make tough shots in isolation to help Iowa score enough points to top the Huskies, and many of those shots will inevitably come from deep. After attempting 20 3s against the Tigers, Clark has no shooting limit.
Paige Bueckers Over 7.5 Rebounds (-115) – DraftKings
Bueckers has been hitting the boards hard throughout the NCAA Tournament, recording 10 or more rebounds in 3 of the team’s 4 games. While Bueckers has only averaged 5.1 rebounds per game this season, it is clear that she is emphasizing crashing the glass to ensure UConn does not allow second-chance opportunities to opponents.
Bueckers has also played all 40 minutes in 3 consecutive games; it is extremely unlikely that she will be subbed out in this game against Iowa, as she is the Huskies’ best player and will be needed to defend Clark and score offensively.
Additionally, this matchup for Bueckers is ideal because Clark only averages roughly 1 offensive rebound per game; Bueckers can follow the ball off the rim instead of focusing on where Clark is located to box her out. The Hawkeyes don’t get many offensive rebounds as a team, which should also aid in her rebounding efforts. They rank just 198th in offensive rebounds per game despite playing up-tempo and having more possessions than most teams.
Bueckers will also benefit from the amount of 3s that Clark shoots. In basketball, there’s a saying that if a long shot is taken, the rebound will also be long. And those long rebounds will be in Bueckers’ vicinity since she will be defending Clark on the perimeter.
One Last Thought
Our AI-powered model suggests the betting line should be Iowa -4.5, which is currently wider than all of the major sportsbooks. The Hawkeyes handled LSU in their Elite Eight game; they jumped out to a double-digit lead in the third quarter and did not look back.
Clark nailed 9 of her 20 total 3-point attempts, catching proverbial fire. If the reigning champion Tigers didn’t have an answer for Clark, it is challenging to see UConn stopping her. The Hawkeyes also survived LSU’s elite rebounding prowess, which is a fantastic sign for their matchup against an inferior rebounding team in the Huskies.
Only a few March Madness games remain, but I will be covering the end of the NBA regular season and the playoffs, too, so check in daily for my dfsPro picks and analysis!