Getty Could Mike McCarthy afford to lose Tony Pollard from the Cowboys offense?
After an unsteady start to his first season as the Dallas Cowboys’ unquestioned lead running back, Tony Pollard has come on in the last two weeks to make significant contributions in limited carries, and even hit the end zone twice after having gone eight straight weeks without a score. Pollard followed up 61 yards rushing on 12 carries against Carolina in Week 11 with 79 yards rushing on 13 carries in Week 12 against the Commanders.
That gives him an impressive 5.6 yards per carry in the last two weeks for Mike McCarthy’s offense, considerably better than the 3.9 yards he had been averaging in the first 10 weeks of the year.
Still, with Pollard and so many of his Cowboys teammates—and with his fellow running backs around the league—there is a background focus on where things go from here. That’s because Pollard will be a free agent in the offseason, and the market on free-agent running backs has all but collapsed in recent years.
“The devaluation is real (as you’ve now heard a million times), and it’s only looking worse for the upcoming NFL offseason,” as the contract-focused website Spotrac noted this week.
What’s more, analyst Mike Ginnitti is foreseeing a situation in which, “Tony Pollard hits the open market, seeking a cap adjusted version of Miles Sanders’ free agent deal (3 years, $20.5M). Green Bay, Chicago, & Buffalo are listening.”
Cowboys Looking at Major Offseason Payouts
Miles Sanders agreed to a four-year, $25 million contract this offseason with Carolina, about $5 million of which was paid this year. He was coming off a Pro Bowl year in Philadelphia, and has not done much to improve the possibility of a rebound in the running-back market this season—after signing his new deal, he was dropped from the stating lineup five weeks into the year, replaced by third-year back Chuba Hubbard.
The Cowboys are currently paying Pollard $10.1 million, having used the franchise tag on him last March. As Spotrac points out, the Cowboys won’t have a lot of options with Pollard, given that they need to hand out top-of-the-line contracts to star quarterback Dak Prescott and receiver CeeDee Lamb.
The Cowboys overpaid Pollard by giving him the franchise tag last year. That won’t happen again.
“The Cowboys gifted Tony Pollard a $10.1M franchise tag as he rehabbed himself back to full health, and subsequently took over the RB1 reins for the first time,” Ginnitti wrote. “As a $965,000 player in 2022, Pollard held a 98.5% value in our system. As a $10.1M player in 2023, Pollard currently holds a 10.1% True Value, or, he’s producing at a $1.01M value currently – which just so happens to be his minimum available salary.”
Tony Pollard a Fit in Green Bay
Of the teams mentioned as potential suitors for Pollard, the Packers could be the team most likely to give him a better deal than the Cowboys can afford. In the offseason, remember, Green Bay surprised many by pursuing a trade for then-holdout running back Jonathan Taylor of the Colts. Taylor is 24, and the Packers saw him a more natural fit on the team’s timeline than current oft-injured star Aaron Jones.
CBS Sports NFL insider Josina Anderson reported: “I’m told both the #Dolphins and #Packers were both willing to give RB Jonathan Taylor a contract that placed him among the highest-paid running backs in the NFL entering this season, per source.”
Taylor wound up signing a deal worth $14 million per year. The Packers would not need to go that high for Tony Pollard, but the fact that he is two-and-a-half years younger than Jones, has less wear-and-tear having been a backup to Ezekiel Elliott for the first three years of his career, and is an excellent blocker in the pass game makes him an interesting fit.
In the end, Spotrac has Pollard’s market value at $6.6 million per year. Even that might prove too expensive for the Cowboys with the other deals they have to give out, but if Pollard falls through the free-agent cracks, he could wind up back in Dallas, though on a decidedly team-friendly contract.