Getty Russell Wilson #3 of the Denver Broncos.
If the Denver Broncos do indeed cut Russell Wilson this offseason, the embattled veteran may not be on the open market for long.
He has been linked to teams in both conferences, including the Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings. But ESPN’s Michael Rothstein thinks the team that he covers, the Atlanta Falcons, would make a suitable landing spot.
“The Falcons learned this season what below-average quarterback play can do to a franchise’s playoff hopes,” Rothstein wrote for a panel discussion published on January 31. “Owner Arthur Blank and CEO Rich McKay made it clear the plan is to win with this roster, and Wilson is the best option out there and has the most experience.”
Wilson, 35, is still owed $242.6 million over the next five years.
He completed 66.4% of his passes for 3,070 yards, 26 touchdowns, and eight interceptions last season. He also absorbed 45 sacks, the fourth-most in the league.
“The team around him would take pressure off Wilson, with playmakers Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, Drake London and Kyle Pitts all set for big roles in 2024,” Rothstein wrote. “And the contract terms also allow for a fairly painless separation if it doesn’t work out.”
For the Broncos, moving on from Wilson would come with significant financial implications.
Russell Wilson Could Land Multi-Year Contract
GettyAtlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank.
The Broncos will be on the hook for $85 million if and win they decide to move on from Wilson. A new team could sign him at or close to the veteran’s minimum in that scenario. But Rothstein projects a new three-year, $36 million contract for Wilson from the Falcons.
Rothstein’s hypothetical offer would include $20 million guaranteed.
“I would frontload the contract with $15 million fully guaranteed in 2024, $12 million in 2025 ($5 million fully guaranteed) and $9 million in 2026,” Rothstein wrote.
There would also be a set of “not likely to be earned” incentives in the deal tied to both Wilson’s snaps and how deep into the postseason he can lead the Falcons. Atlanta finished last season 7-10 and third in the NFC South.
The Falcons’ $29.9 million in cap space is the 16th most this offseason, per Spotrac.
Moving on from Wilson would still be costly. Ownership has already downplayed potential spending this offseason. They could be shopping for bargains to replace Wilson.
Colts’ Gardner Minshew Projected to Replace Russell Wilson in Broncos’ QB Room
GettyGardner Minshew #10 of the Indianapolis Colts.
“[Gardner] Minshew fits Payton’s offense well and has shown he can be a serviceable starter,” Broncos writer Jeff Legwold wrote for the panel. “Minshew is younger than Jameis Winston and could be in Denver’s price range. The Broncos will be a cap-pinched team this offseason.”
Minshew completed 62.2% of his passes for 3,305 yards, 15 touchdowns, and nine interceptions last season. He led the Indianapolis Colts to a 7-6 record on a one-year, $3.5 million contract.
Legwold projects a fully guaranteed two-year, $14 million contract.
The journeyman, originally a sixth-round pick in 2019, has played for the Jacksonville Jaguars and Philadelphia Eagles in his career. He could compete with incumbent Jarett Stidham, who started the last two games of the season, for the starting job in training camp.
The Broncos could still add a rookie to the mix too.