Getty Lions QB Jared Goff (left) & Bucs QB Baker Mayfield (right).
The Detroit Lions (12-5) host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-8) in the NFC Divisional round at Ford Field on Sunday, January 21.
The Bucs are fresh from a thorough dismantling of the reigning NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles last weekend. Now, quarterback Baker Mayfield and company will head to what promises to be a raucous Ford Field filled to the brim with hopeful Lions fans.
Detroit is coming off its first postseason win since 1991 after beating the Los Angeles Rams, 24-23, in the Wild Card round.
The Bucs and Lions have already met once this season — Week 6 down in Tampa, when the Lions walked away with a 20-6 win. Heavy Sports’ AI-powered projections model, courtesy of our partners at Quarter 4, predicts a higher-scoring affair this time around.
Quarter 4’s projections have the Lions 3.5-point favorites, with a 61% chance to win the game. Our model has the over/under set for 51.5 points. Here’s a look at five more AI-powered predictions for what promises to be one heck of a game.
1. Baker Mayfield Will Outduel Jared Goff
BAKER MAYFIELD TO TREY PALMER FOR A 56-YARD TD 😱
Lions quarterback Jared Goff threw for 4,575 yards and 30 touchdowns during the regular season, while Mayfield had a career year, throwing for 4,044 yards and 28 scores. Goff’s stats were a tad more gaudy, but our model has Mayfield emerging with better stats in this game.
Quarter 4’s projections have Mayfield completing 70.3% of his passes for 291.4 yards and 2.1 TDs. The Bucs QB averages 1.6 touchdown passes per game, so that’s a 31.3% increase from the norm, which is significant, particularly considering the pass rush he’s going to face (more on that later).
The Heavy model has Goff completing 71.8% of his passing attempts for 275.2 yards and 1.9 TDs. Those numbers are nothing to throw a stick at, but considering Goff has done more through the air than Baker has this year, it would be a somewhat unexpected outcome to see Mayfield end the day with superior stats.
One reason Mayfield could go off in this game? When playing single coverage, Lions CBs have allowed the highest passer rating in the league (108.0).
2. Aidan Hutchinson Will Double His Average Sack Total
Aidan Hutchinson in his playoff debut:
🦁 23 pass rushing snaps
🦁 9 pressures
🦁 2 sacks
🦁 39.1% pressure percentage
Aidan Hutchinson has been a beast over his two seasons in the league, and he has been on a tear of late. He had 11.5 sacks during the regular season and had 2.0 in his playoff debut against the Rams.
Hutch had five multiple-sack games this year, but he didn’t get to the quarterback when he saw the Bucs during the regular season. Look for that to change here.
Quarter 4’s projections have Hutchinson netting 1.4 sacks, which is double the 0.7 per game he averaged during the regular season. The Bucs allowed 40 sacks over 17 regular season games, so their O-line will give up a few each game. With Hutch amassing 7.0 sacks over his last three games, he could get a few all by himself.
3. A Sam LaPorta TD Is a Good Bet
WELCOME TO THE PLAYOFFS SAM LAPORTA 🔥
Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta have accounted for 67.7% of Jared Goff’s 31 passing touchdowns during the regular season and the playoffs. LaPorta has been the hotter hand of late, catching 5 TD passes over the past month. Our model strongly suggests the Lions TE will find the end zone again here.
Quarter 4 projects the Lions TE will score 1.1 TDs, an 83.3% increase from the 0.6 TDs per game he typically scores.
LaPorta hauled in 10 TD passes during the regular season and while he has been playing through a knee injury, he still found a way to get into the end zone in the Lions’ Wild Card win. He had 3 catches against the Rams for just 14 yards, but one of those was a TD snag. Look for his red zone dominance to continue against Tampa.
4. Our AI Model Predicts the Lions OL Will Likely Neutralize Vita Vea
Vita Vea controlling his blocker is always my favorite thing to see #Bucsfilm2023WildCardWeekend
Vita Vea had another solid season at nose tackle for the Bucs, finishing with 5.5 sacks, 8 TFLs and 21 QB hurries in 15 games. He had one of his best games of the season against the Lions during the regular season, forcing a fumble and netting a season-high 6 tackles.
Vea has been a game-wrecker, but Heavy’s AI-powered model has Detroit’s offensive line limiting him more than he’s used to being neutralized.
The 6-foot-4, 346-pound Buccaneers NT averages 3.1 tackles per game, and our AI-powered projections have him netting 2.0, a 35.9% decrease from the norm. Quarter 4 also projects his solo tackle total to drop from 1.9 to 1.1 (that’s a -42.1% differential).
5. Take the Over on Rachaad White’s Rushing Yards
White finished with 990 yards rushing, 549 yards receiving and 9 total touchdowns this year. He averaged 58.2 yards rushing and just over 32 receiving yards per game. He’ll be going up against a Detroit defense that had the second-best rushing defense in the NFL this year, giving up 88.8 yards per contest.
While White may not have a stellar game stats-wise, out model projects he’ll gain more yardage than he normally does against this tough Lions defense.
Quarter 4 predicts White will net just under 62 rushing yards, a slight increase from his average. The AI-powered model also has the Bucs RB scoring 0.5 rushing TDs, which is a +25% differential.
Here’s a look at how the sportsbooks compare heading into this game:
| Outlet | Spread | Total |
| Heavy* | Lions -3.5 | 51.5 |
| MGM | Lions -6.5 | 48.5 |
| DraftKings | Lions -6.5 | 48.5 |
| FanDuel | Lions -6.5 | 48.5 |
| SugarHouseNJ | Lions -6.5 | 48.5 |
| Bet365NewJersey | Lions -6.5 | 48.5 |
| PointsBet | Lions -6.5 | 48.5 |
| ESPNBet | Lions -6.5 | 48.5 |
* The Heavy data point is a projected spread powered by Quarter4. The other outlets in the table are all sportsbooks.